Lost Discussion Group: The Oceanic NOT-Six

My feeling that at least some of those who stayed behind did not do so by choice. And the 6 who got off the island weren't necessarily chosen but instead got sort of swept up in something that lead to them being the ones to get off. My guess is that some sort of violence broke out on and that a high number of the freighter folk get got. The losties who survive take the freighter to rescue instead of risking going back to the island. Ben and Michael pose as members of the crew (along with a few Others to round it out) and the 6 tell everyone they're the only survivors to protect the island. Jin dies heroically protecting Sun but Claire survives. Of course something will have to happen to bring Locke and Jack's tribes back together, probably the threat of the freighter folk drives one group back towards the other of they both go on the move and run into each other etc.
When Abbadon (? Lt Daniels) asks Hurley if there’s anyone still alive he's referring to the freighter’s crew since he doesn't know if they killed or just had the ship stolen from them.

I don't believe that they are going to choose to stay there. The fact that such a lie is necessary to be constructed and the fact that it slowly eats away at Jack and Hurley (and who knows who else?) in the future suggests to me that the people who stay aren't staying by choice.

I believe that Claire is alive so far.

I am also incredibly confident that Jin is alive. In fact, I would be willing to place a wager on it if anyone is up for it. I don't KNOW in the actual sense of the word, it's just a vibe I get.

The fact is that we will get the answers to most, if not all, of these questions in the next five episodes. That's a LOT of storytelling in 5 episodes. To explain a situation in which Hurley switches camps, rescue arrives, and people get back to the mainland seems to me there's a lot of ground to cover.

Hopefully it will bring some viewers back since last week was the lowest rated episode of Lost of all time. Which is a scary thought.

The writers have a lot to explain in the remaining 5 episodes, if indeed the end of season 4 will see the Oceanic 6 leave the island together.

From what we know now, what will happen when they leave the other Losties can't be that bad - otherwise Jack, given the kind of person he is, would have tried to return to the island immediately. And Kate, Hurley and the others would not have seemed so relaxed about being back home.

So that is an argument in favor of at least some element of free will in the non-06 staying on the island.

On the other hand, bearded Jack seems very tormented. Perhaps he (and Hurley before him) discovered later on that what *they* believed to be the true turn of events wasn't exactly how it went down? That would explain the transformation from "we're never going back!"-Jack to "we have to go back!!"-Jack.

Final point - according to Cuse and Lindelof on the official podcast...

(VERY MILD SPOILER ALERT)

...the identity of the other two "survivors" (from Jack's story in court) is unimportant, and just intended to make the O6's story more believable.

I've had this running theory that everyone in the tail section was "supposed" to die, and the only ones left are the people the Others abducted, so I think a lot of the slaughtering will be occurring in the Others' camp, as well as the redshirts. I have a feeling that Ben will be forced to retreat from the island in some way, and the not-O6 will survive what will be thought of as a catastrophic event. Locke will be the true leader, in a lord of the flies kind of way, and when we finally see them again in season 6, we'll have bad-ass jungle versions of Claire, Jin, Sawyer, etc.

After taking last week off, I'm back. Great question, James:

- I think Claire is alive. While Kate's sense of responsibility for Aaron suggests she could be dead (i.e. Kate will do anything to care for Aaron because it was Claire's dying wish?), I think a lot of other factors point to her survival. First, there is Jack - I have to believe his refusal to see Aaron and his gradual descent into despair over needing to go back to the island were caused, in whole or in part, over guilt that he left what turned out to be his half-sister (and the mother of his nephew) back on the island in a greedy attempt to "save" himself. Remember, Jack is always about saving everyone: leaving behind his sister, even unwittingly? That's gotta gnaw away at his soul/psyche. Not to mention the fact that future-Jack might have been having visions of his dead father - a subtle allusion that Jack's father's almost dying wish was to see Claire again, and not only did he fail in that, but now Jack has gone and left her behind on the island, separated from her child (and Christian's grandson).

Second, I think Claire's alive because of Hurley's visions of Charlie back in the real world. Charlie = sacrifice for Claire (and Aaron = the perfect person to torture Hurley with guilt that he left "Charlie's girl" behind.

- I have to believe that the un-Oceanic 6 might have been picked as OR MORE intentionally than the Oceanic 6, possibly due to the "constant" problem we discovered via Desmond. This is best seen in Jin and Sun - Sun had to get off the island because she was pregnant, but perhaps leaving the island (without a constant back on the island, who knew her before her time on the island, or else just knew her period) would have killed her. Thus Jin did the "noble" thing and stayed behind on the island to be Sun's constant there, so that she and his baby could survive and leave.

Thus Kate might have gotten off with Sawyer as her constant back on the island (oooh, romantic), and Aaron got off thanks to "constant" Claire (his mother). That leaves Jack, Sayid, and Hurley as currently "constant-less" Oceanic 6 members, so who are their "constants" on the island? (I'd nominate either Desmond - who Jack met at the stadium - or Rose - who sat next to Jack on the flight - as Jack's potential constants, but I have no clue on the others).

I guess this idea loses credence given the fact that Sayid jumped to the freighter without any "constant" problems, but it's an interesting idea....

Claire seems to have been utterly wasted this season, moreso than in the past. The fact that she was like, "Oh my God! Charlie died!" for about 10 minutes before she began acting like nothing even happened. That's the one thing that really annoyed me about this season and the reason I don't think they'd play the "Charlie's girl" angle from Hurley's perspective.

Re Claire: I assume that Claire is one of the O8 but the cover story dictates that she dies in childbirth. (She must really die before the rescue though. Who would abandon her baby? No one, at least not for a believable reason.)

In Kate's flash-forward trial, she said that she didn't want to have Aaron testify to her sterling character. Now any old kid would get up on a stand and say that his mommy was the bestest there is. So why would his tesitmony mean anything to anyone? Probably if Kate saved him from certain death on the island after his real mother died.

As for who's alive on the island, I think Widmore's people are looking for the Others in hiding. Why would he care about the people on Oceanic 815? They have no knowledge of what the island really is.

Or maybe they do. Who knows?

Ditto @ SeannyD. Given that Charlie's died something like a week ago, Claire sure seems very happy. It seemed almost surreal when she was playing and laughing with Aaron and Kate in "Eggtown".

Then again, the island seems to heal grief just as easily as it heals broken backs. Think Hurley, or Sayid... didn't take them too long to get over their blondies.

@Gerry - a couple thoughts. In Kate's flash-forward trial, I think she was objecting to "using" Aaron's presence in the courtroom - I don't think it was ever an issue of him being an actual witness - just having him there in the courtroom to garner sympathy for Kate. It was Jack that she didn't want called as a character witness. I could be remembering wrong. . .

Also, Kate kept referring to Aaron as her "son", and Kate's mama certainly thought she was the baby's grandmother, which lead me to believe that part of the cover story is that Aaron is actually Kate's child. Otherwise, how exactly would a court let Kate (on trial for murder) wind up with custody? But then again, the writers could have glossed over that part, or we could learn more in the next episodes that make that a non-issue.

Interesting that last week was the lowest rated episode, hopefully the ABC promo dept takes that as a rebuke of their very annoying promo strategy "SOMEONE...WILL...DIE"

As for the non-O6 I think Jin is on his way out. A buddy of mine has a theory that they've been killing off the characters who's actors get in trouble with the law (re: ana lucia and libby), and given the recent DUI arrest, he would be next. Obviously not anything concrete, but I like it because its like the island manifesting itself in the real world...ooooh.

I want to believe that Claire is alive, but i have a nagging feeling that she may end up dying. More of a hunch than anything else, but that pained look on future jack's face when kate mentioned aaron makes me believe that he tried to save her and failed. Although Chaddog's theory would also work so maybe she's alive, I hope she is, I feel like there's more to her story. BTW, maybe this has been mentioned, I haven't heard anyone talk about it though, but now that we know Kate is raising Aaron off-island as her own, what does that mean in light of the grim predictions of Claire's psychic from season 1? Remember "only she must raise the child"

Yeah, Shara, you're right. Kate's lawyer doesn't specifically say that Aaron would take the satnd, just that he should be in the court room. I assumed that because the lawyer was talking about character that Aaron would testify.

Chaddogg, nice idea about constants being left on the island. Not everyone needs them--the weird time-hopping thing doesn't happen to everyone, but it's a good safety net to have.

@shara that's how i remember it too.
@mike, tell your friend that Michele Rodriguez (anna lucia) was only ever going to be on the show for one season. She was always going to die (unless she got off the island with everone else still there ala Gilligan's Island) and it didn't have anything to do with her DUI, plus we saw Libby last week so obv there not just tossing away people with DUIs.
@chad (welcome back brotha') i thought the deal with the constant was that it (they) had to be in both the past/future and present. So if Kate's off island in the future and Sawyer's still on the island doesn't that rule him out as a constant?
also re: constants are we sure they even need to be people? i got the impression it could just as easily be an object (your dead dad's watch or something) if it were really important to you.

I don't see the constant thing being as important as we're making it seem. I think it's important to Daniel & Co., but I'm not sure about the O6. Since they're off the island, they presumably made it off safely and haven't started freaking out.

I don't think that Jin or Claire will be dead. Call it annoyance at the promo dept, but for as many people as Lost has killed, they really don't pull the trigger (Boone and Shannon are the biggest deaths that come to mind) all that often. Don't forget - the Island doesn't let people die that it doesn't want dead, so I'm expecting to see Arzt show up any day now :)

Here's what I see happening: Widmore offers to take Oceanics off the Island, and the 6 go (Sun to save her baby, Kate because she's a runner and has to run away from Sawyer and the Island, Hurley because he thinks he's going crazy and needs to get away, Aaron because Claire wants to get him away from the island so he doesn't die, Sayid because he's freaking Sayid and the coolest character ever, and Jack because he has a freaky Jacob experience and leaves to try to smite the Island), while the rest stay. Sayid decides that the best way for him to figure out Ben is to pretend to work for him, so Sayid helps Ben get off the Island.

It just popped into my head, but I like the idea of Jack having a Jacob moment. Maybe he sees his dad and finds out Claire's his half-sister. Jack gets pissed off at his dad (no surprise there) and takes Widmore's offer to leave.

Another thought crossed my mind: with what we've just seen between Juliette and Jack, how does Jack get all Jack around Kate in the future with Juliette still being alive?

I see Rousseau as the Arch Duke Ferdinand and that her assasination will start a war between the freighties and the Others with Locke AND Jack's camp caught up in the middle. There will be casualties, allegiances made and broken, and only those 6 will make it to safety. I think we'll see a return of the other's from "The Temple" or maybe even see the temple as the freighties will use Alex to force Ben to take them there.

The payoff is that the remaining survivors have to fall in line with The Others. Ben returns as leader with Locke as his consigliere. The reveal then would be that after Ben fights so hard to keep everyone on the island, we know he leaves in the future to make sure the island stays safe.

I still think it'd be a cool twist to have Jin also working as an assassin for Ben in the future, off island. If Paik industries is in league with Widmore, it'd be some sweet redemption for Jin, no?

The rest:

Claire: I think she'll die
Rose and Bernard: They choose to stay on the island (so Rose can keep living)
Locke: Continues his quest to discover more about the island, perhaps disappears into the jungle during the fray if he doesn't align with Ben
Juliet: I actually have no idea. She could die, I suppose. More likely is that she returns with Ben in order for Jack to be set free.
Sawyer: I think he makes some sort of trade that allows Kate to go free. That'd be perfect if I'm right about Juliet
Desmond: I'm not sure about this either. Why will he stay? I bet it has something to do with Widmore.
Michael: I think he'll end up dead.

@Dave - the only thing about your theory that doesn't work is Claire and Jin - no way they stay and let their baby (Aaron) and wife and unborn child (Sun) leave. If the Losties could "choose" to leave or stay, arguably the only ones who would consider staying would be Sawyer (criminal past), Kate (same - but we know she leaves), Locke (loves the island, plus he can walk!), and Bernard/Rose (he loves her, her cancer has been cured on the island). Everyone else, though, has CLEAR reasons to leave - Hurley to see his family, plus he's not cursed anymore; Jack's Messiah complex about leading his people to salvation; Claire to raise her baby safely; Sayid to get to Nadia; Sun and Jin to have their baby safely, etc. etc.

No, it seems clear that for the not-Oceanic 6, some died (perhaps Claire, perhaps Jin), but others DEFINITELY lived and were left behind unwillingly (Jack & Hurley's despair, Sayid's attempt to protect his friends, etc.)

- One real cool question - none of the Oceanic 6 seem all that happy. What if THEY are cursed/tormented, not by the fact that they left behind their friends, but because they left behind the ISLAND, which is some Garden of Eden, etc. type place? In that world, their torment isn't guilt over leaving, but a FEVERISH DESIRE to return....cool twist, no?

@Justin
re: Desmond- since he's already on the freighter and has boating experience, memeber of freighter crew would be a good cover for him to get off the island and still not be one of the O6
And that is a cool idea about Jin, but i think he would have been there in some way for the birth, even if he couldn't show up at the hospital or call her on the phone i'm sure he'd've found a way to contact Sun which would have negated the need for her to go talk to him at his "grave"- (on a semi-side note here i think it worth noting that Sun telling the Docs to call Jin is pretty similar to Jack demanding that the Doc to go see how sober his dad is. could Sun be tormented by the ghost of Jin? Or were we just once again duped by sneaky writers with their misdirection and all?)

Based on listening to the podcasts and comments form Darlton, I think we're to assume that only the Oceanic 6 are back in the real world, cover up or not. As in, the focus isn't on who the world knows is back in the real world and who's in hiding, the issue is how did only these six people leave the island? (Ben isn't in this count as we've seen him in the future already.) This all meaning, I don't think anyone will "pose as a crew member" etc. Especially not Desmond since the fact that it's Widmore's boat is WAY too perfect for a deeper plot in regards to Des.

@ Chaddog: "the only thing about your theory that doesn't work is Claire and Jin - no way they stay and let their baby (Aaron) and wife and unborn child (Sun) leave"

I don't think that it would be outside the realm of possibility for both Claire and Jin to "decide" to stay - each of them is related to one of the "6", and each loves their "6" person more than they love themselves - I could see either/both conceivably sacrificing their own freedom to ensure the freedom of their family. Jin has already said that he will do whatever it takes to get Sun and the baby off the island before it kills them - if that means sacrificing his own seat home, then I'd totally buy it (in fact, if Jin wouldn't make that sacrifice, it would fly in the face of his recent island rebirth of lovey goodness).

Claire I would be a little more doubtful about, since there isn't any (currently known) mortal peril facing Aaron, but there is the whole chance-for-a-normal-life angle to consider. Or maybe he gets sick and can't be treated on the island. If one of them dies, I think it would be MORE likely that Claire dies than Jin. Or heck, maybe they both die.

@carlos - spot on with the comparison between sun calling for Jin and Jack and his Dad. I do think Jin is going to die, mainly because he's basically come full circle with his forgiveness of Sun's infidelity, I feel like often characters are killed off when they reach the end of their "story" or when the island no longer has work for them to do. that was part of the reason i was a believer in the purgatory theory while it was still out there. Also a reason that I can't quite get myself to believe that Claire will die, I just feel like they wouldn't kill her off so abruptly given how little screen time she's had this season, it would make the whole Charlie dying for her thing a little hollow.

What many viewers (and posters) do not seem to account for is the durable nature of time and death on the island. I'd bet that many of the "presumed dead," including Jin, Claire, Juliet, and Sawyer, as well as the potentially "left behind," like Locke, Bernard and Rose, could easily see a "time travel rescue" or similar reversal of fate in the future. For many fans, it becomes difficult to see the "traditionally crafted tale" forest for all of the "story weirdness" trees.

Put another way, the writers will aim for a happy ending. Jin and Sun ending up together is a happy ending, as is Claire raising her baby. Yes, there will be heroic sacrifice (I'd have more money on Jack dying in this way than anyone else), but some of the characters *ahem, Hurley, ahem* are just not very killable. Once all is said and done, it is very unlikely that the "Oceanic 6" will be the sole survivors.

Remember, Jack seems intent on going back. Who knows what outcome that might have?

A few more thoughts:

Here are all the surviving Losties (just looking at the plane crash, here - ignoring Desmond and Juliet for the moment) that we know about:

Off Island: Jack, Kate, Sayid, Aaron, Sun, Hurley, Walt

Not off Island: Locke, Sawyer, Rose, Bernard, Jin, and Claire (plus Cindy the stewardess and the kids, who've been hanging with the Others?)

Unclear: Michael

From the Not Off Island list, 4 of those we could reasonably expect to choose to stay (if they were alive to make that choice. Locke - not going nowhere but the island. Sawyer's already expressed his choice to stay - what's he got to return for (oh, except that daughter he's got somewhere). Rose and Bernard, while they didn't follow Locke cause he's nutso, would probably choose to stay on the island so Rose doesn't die of her terminal cancer. That really does leave just Claire and Jin to wonder about - the others would have likely stayed by choice (if they haven't already died on the island by that point). I wouldn't think that Jack would have been too torn up about leaving folks behind who stayed of their own volition.

Juliet and Desmond are in an interesting position, because either of them could leave the island without having to explain fake plane bodies away - both were on the island for their own reasons, and both could leave and return to off-Island life without raising too many eyebrows. Both seem to seriously want off of the Island - Desmond to get back to Penny and Juliet to get back to her family.

I could see Jack being wracked by guilt over leaving Claire, Jin, Juliet, and/or Desmond behind. I also agree with whoever posted earlier that Juliet may well sacrifice her life or her freedom to save/rescue/free Jack, just to bring that back full circle (both are doctors who want to save people, both have had major failings in their ability to save the people/things they want to save) - I could see totally see Juliet out-savior-ing Jack. . .

@shara - okay, I concede your point...but then it doesn't make sense that, say, Jack/Sayid/Kate/Hurley get off before Sun AND Jin, or Claire AND Aaron. I mean, there's no way wanted fugitive Kate volunteers to leave the island WITH Aaron - she's just give up her seat to Claire to go with her son. Ditto Sayid, ditto Jack, ditto Hurley. And ditto all of that for Sun and Jin.

In other words, I'm fairly certain there is some traumatic event that causes Aaron to be split from his mother (including anything up to and including Claire's death), and Sun to be rescued by not Jin. Indeed, we already know something traumatic happens, because Hurley somehow switches from Camp Locke to Camp Oceanic 6.

@Auteurettes - The "Tale of Two Cities" parallels would seem to suggest Jack sacrificing himself in some way so that Kate and Sawyer are "saved"...maybe so they can raise Aaron and "baby Jack" in freedom in the real world? And while I agree with Dave that most characters killed don't pack too much emotional wallop (Echo, Ana Lucia, Nikki, Paolo, Artz), Lost knows how to ramp it up at the right time (most notably Charlie, but also Boone and Shannon).

Plus, we're heading to the end here - they can't just make it an ice-cream-and-picnics happy ending: people gotta DIE so that the surviving Losties EARN a happy ending. With around 37 episodes remaining (40? Does anyone know the final episode impact of the strike on Lost?), I don't think ANY character is safe from death.

That being said, you gotta believe that BIG deaths (Jack and Locke, certainly; Kate, Sawyer, and Ben, probably) probably won't happen until the true end game of the final handful (4-5) of episodes.

But on yet the other hand - this is Lost...it delights in confounding expectations. Remember, we all were SURE we were seeing the death of Charlie in "Greatest Hits," only to think he was safe through most of "Through the Looking Glass," only to have him sacrifice in exactly the way Desmond foresaw.

@Chaddogg The number of episodes hasn't changed, I don't think. I thought that what ever they didn't fit in this year because of the strike would get added onto next year. I might be wrong.

I agree that something traumatic has to happen. Honestly, Locke and Ben are the only two I could see Jack leaving on the island considering his messiah complex.

I also don't think that Juliet and Desmond could return to the real world and have everything be a-ok. Wouldn't there be a lot of questions? The whole point of the O6 story is to keep the island a secret. That means Desmond can't just walk back into the real world and explain about the button and the purple sky and all that.

@chaddogg, you're absolutely right, something has to happen for the 6 who did get off, to get off, otherwise why just those six and not the other two you mentioned. I'm starting to wonder if its something that happens very very quickly, like in the middle of a shoot out somehow people get separated and the O6 folks happen to be together and get evacuated from the island (not sure how aaron and claire get separated but its possible). I'm thinking this is one way that claire and jin are still alive, yet the everything still fits Jack feeling guilty about claire, sun crying at jin's grave, not because they're dead, but because they don't know what happened to them. Maybe the O6 aren't "rescued" so much as they are "captured" by freighter dudes and brought to the outside world

has anyone read this?

http://timelooptheory.com//the_timeline.htm

Very intricate theory on the "funky time" aspects. Makes one think. It certainly fills in some of the holes.. would be interested to hear what this group thinks. maybe it's been discussed here before, not sure.

About Sayid: I think that his off-island story will parallel Michael's. In Sayid's flash-forward, Ben reminds him of the last time he thought with his heart. Exposing Michael as a traitor qualifies as thinking with his heart instead of his head. That action leads to some funky goings on for which Sayid needs to redeem himself--by working with Ben, just like Michael did.

As for what's tormenting Jack and Hurley, if it's rescue-related guilt, why did it take so long to kick in? They should have been miserable from the start. I think their problems stem from somthing that happens after the rescue.

@Chaddog: Dude, I'm totally with you in expecting all kinds of crazy s**t to go down! Not meaning to imply otherwise - I just think that it is really, really interesting that there are only 2-4 of the Not Oceanic Six who (currently) actually want to get off the island - and it is their stories that I am kinda expecting to be the most dramatic - how THOSE wind up getting left.

@ Justin - Desmond couldn't go back and talk about the purple sky and all that, certainly not - that would raise questions. But he has not been declared dead, and there is not a fake dead body pretending to be him. He could easily develop a cover story about traveling in another country or continuing to boat around the world, something like that to explain his absence.

Juliet as well - her sister might have questions, (as might potential employers) but she could just say that her research was in a remote location and took a long time, and now she is returning. She doesn't have a fake dead body pretending to be her either. Neither Desmond nor Juliet would necessarily have to tell anybody about the island if they went back.

Not to say that either or both do or do not leave the island - I just think that it would be conceivable that they could go back to their loved ones with plausible cover stories to answer any questions that do arise. Unlike the Oceanic 6, who need the elaborate cover-up to explain the wreckage and dead bodies.

@ Shara You're right. I guess I just can't see the show handling these characters this way.

I was thinking last night, and I think that Penny will end up on the island somehow, and that her and Desmond will stay. After all, how else are they to become Adam and Eve?

Yeah, I DEFINTELY can't imagine that they actually WOULD just go back home, or that the story would ever go that direction - I just think that Juliet and Desmond are in a very interesting position compared to the Losties, in that they potentially COULD, and I wonder how that dynamic will play into whatever resolution occurs.

I also get the feeling that Penny and Desmond may end up on the island together - I think that they will wind up together, anyway, and I love the idea that they could be Adam and Eve. I had also had that thought about Kate and Jack at some point - both have been expelled from the "garden" by leaving the island, and its pretty clear that at some point they will both be wanting to get back to it.

@Gerry - I like the way you're thinking. I totally agree that exposing Michael as a traitor/Ben's man on the boat to the captain MIGHT have been Sayid's "thinking with his heart, not with his head" moment that future-Ben was alluding to.

Of course, I also have a devilish theory that Michael isn't Ben's ONLY man on the boat, and that the Captain himself might be working for Ben. Remember, Ben is ahead of everyone...he wouldn't rely solely on Michael, and thus he SURELY has a back-up plan.

@Chaddogg, Ben must have another man on the boat. With all this time-trippin' stuff, it could be anyone. Hell, Ben might even be his own granpa!

I'm still shaky on the time warp stuff...clearly something is going on in the trip from the boat to the island, but I'm no longer clear that time is moving any different between the island and the real world. So far, I think the only thing we can be sure of is that unless you stick on that one path, something screwy with time WILL happen if you cross the "barrier" between freighter land and island.