Obama and Race, By the Numbers

The NYT poll this morning finds that Barack Obama's candidacy has done little to improve race relations in this country, and that the racial divide extends to views of the biracial candidate himself:

Black and white Americans agree that America is ready to elect a black president, but disagree on almost every other question about race in the poll.

Black voters were far more likely than whites to say that Mr. Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like them, and more likely to describe him as patriotic. Whites were more likely than blacks to say that Mr. Obama says what he thinks people want to hear, rather than what he truly believes. And about half of black voters said race relations would improve in an Obama administration, compared with 29 percent of whites.

About 40 percent of blacks said that Mr. McCain, if elected president, would favor whites over blacks should he win the election.

There was even racial dissension over Mr. Obama's wife, Michelle: She was viewed favorably by 58 percent of black voters, compared with 24 percent of white voters.

Among black voters, who are overwhelmingly Democrats, Mr. Obama draws support from 89 percent, compared with 2 percent for Mr. McCain. Among whites, Mr. Obama has 37 percent of the vote, compared with 46 percent for Mr. McCain.

The Obama campaign has a different view of the same data, as expressed in this e-mail from spokesman Bill Burton:

The NYT story about their poll ignores multiple and significant pieces of data that actually indicate a trend much different from that which the story suggests. Here are some straightforward points from their data that are omitted from the story:

a) More white voters say Obama cares about people like them, than say the same thing about McCain by 31 to 23

b) On the essential issue in this campaign – bringing about change in Washington – Among white voters, Obama is seen as the change agent by 52% to 30%

c) Obama's 31% favorable rating among white voters is virtually identical to McCain's, which is at 34%.

d) By a 2 to 1 margin over McCain, white voters are more likely to say that Obama would improve America's image in the world

e) “Racial dissension” around Mrs. Obama's 24% favorable rating among whites is an extremely odd description given that Mrs. McCain's favorable rating among white voters is 20%.

f) Enthusiasm for Obama's candidacy is roughly 2.5 times higher among white voters than is enthusiasm for McCain's.

g) Obama is winning by 6 points against McCain and the gap among white voters is only -9 --- a margin smaller than independent expert on voting patterns, Ruy Texiera, said would give Obama a “ solid win.”

h) though there is a six-point margin of error among black voters the NYT describes the 7-point change in black voters' views that whites had a better chance of getting ahead as slightly higher than 8 years ago. Given that the Times reports horserace questions as statistically even when the margin falls within the margin, it seems that this shift from seven years ago among black voters is well within the margin of error.