May 6, 2008 10:30
You Can't Talk to Iran...
if they don't want to talk to you. Of course, every effort shold be made to negotiate--but it's always good to bear in mind that the mullahs have been as recalcitrant as the Bush Administration...and more recalcitrant than the Clinton Administration (at least, in Clinton's latter years). In 2000, a handshake had been choreographed between Clinton and then-Iranian President Khatami during the UN General Assembly meeting, but Khatami pulled out of the deal at the last minute--pressure from the Supreme Leader Khamenei and his circle. (I've been told that Khatami says that backing out of the handshake was the greatest regret of his presidency.)
It's no secret why the mullahs are reluctant to talk to us: they need a Great Satan to keep their public distracted from the generally disastrous job they're doing running the government. As I've written before, my favorite piece of (official) graffiti in Teheran is painted on the old U.S. Embassy--now the Museum of the Great Satan: "On the day the Great Satan praises us, We shall mourn..." I've always thought that was the perfect rationale for unilateral U.S. recognition of Iran: it's the last thing the mullahs want.
Meanwhile, according to AFP via Juan Cole, Khatami has reemerged and is speaking more courageously than he ever did as President:
' In his speech, Khatami referred to the ambition of Iran's revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to export the 1979 Islamic revolution around the world, but expressed fear this wish was being distorted. "What did the imam (Khomeini) mean by exporting the revolution?" he asked in the speech Friday to university students in the northern province of Gilan, according to the Kargozaran newspaper. "Did he mean that we take up arms, that we blow up places in other nations and we create groups to carry out sabotage in other countries? The imam was vehemently against this and was confronting it," he added. His speech has been seen by some observers as accusing the Iranian authorities of encouraging militants to destabilize the Middle East, in particular Iraq and Lebanon. '
It'll be interested to see how long it will take for the mullahs to shut him down.
About Swampland
Ana Marie Cox is the founding editor of Wonkette and the author of the novel Dog Days. Read more
Joe Klein is TIME's political columnist and author of six books, most recently Politics Lost. Read more
Karen Tumulty is TIME's National Political Correspondent and has also covered the White House and Congress. Read more
Jay Carney is TIME's Washington bureau chief. He has covered the Clinton and Bush 43 White Houses as well as Congress. Read more
Jay Newton-Small has covered the Bush 43 White House and Congress since the DeLay era. Read more
Michael Scherer is a TIME Washington bureau correspondent covering the 2008 presidential campaign. Read more
Mike Murphy is a GOP consultant and was a senior strategist for John McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. Read more
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Reader Comments (15)
they need a Great Satan to keep their public distracted from the generally disastrous job they're doing running the government
So I see you understand the anaolgy of the Fun-house mirror...
Saber-rattling is a symbiotic activity.
Posted by Paul Dirks
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May 6, 2008 10:49 AM
You can bet that Iranian conservatives will question his patriotism for criticizing his government's destabilizing actions in other countries.
(I have to admit that I'm puzzled over what role, exactly, Iran is playing in Iraq. They seem to be supporting the elected government, and various groups working to destabilize the government. I guess they just want to be pals with whichever Shiite group winds up running things.)
Posted by Elvis Elvisberg
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May 6, 2008 11:09 AM
Elvis -
The Iran experts all say that it's a serious mistake to think of the Iranian government as monolithic. It may be that different Iranian factions are backing different Iraqi factions.
Posted by Robert Sullivan | May 6, 2008 11:14 AM
To fully understand Iran/US relations. we need to know the history.
For example, why would the Iranians think of our country as the "Great Satan"? Maybe it's related to our CIA overthrowing the democratically elected government in the 1950's. We helped bring the Shah (dictator and human rights abuser extrodainaire) back to power.
Also keep in mind that during the late 1990's, reformers were starting to flourish in Iran. Then Bush came to power and declared them part of the "Axis of Evil." The religious extremists and mullahs gained more prominence and as they say the rest is history.
Why is it that most Americans don't have a clue about the history of relations between the US and Iran?
Posted by McCain Fluffer | May 6, 2008 11:16 AM
You're absolutely right, Robert Sullivan. It's a complex government, with lots of factions and institutions doing different things.
Posted by Elvis Elvisberg
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May 6, 2008 11:50 AM
Unilateral recognition makes a lot of sense on a number of levels, not just as a political lever.
Posted by jayackroyd
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May 6, 2008 11:56 AM
...and Hillary is ready to rattle those sabres on Day One to ensure that nothing changes in our current relationship with the Islamic Republic. Great!!! The same goes for our Cuba policy and more tough lady talk and name calling on Russia. George Bush isn't on the ballot, but Hillary is just fine with acting like him.
Her other talk about improving America's standing in the world doesn't quite fit with the reality that Hillary has been promoting on the campaign trail.
Posted by Courtney H | May 6, 2008 12:37 PM
I'm surprised that this paragraph did draw some direct comment:
Fellow Shiites are not the only ones disturbed by the fighting; a delegation from Anbar Province, which is almost entirely Sunni, made the long and dangerous journey to Sadr City on Monday to show solidarity with the poor Shiite community. As American helicopter gunships barraged nearby neighborhoods and people ran inside to take shelter, representatives of influential Sunni tribes, including the Janabi and Hebi, stood shoulder to shoulder with distinguished Shiite tribal leaders in Sadr City.
It makes it seem that the eventual end to the civil warfare will come when all the various elements at play unite against us.
Not a comforting thought....
Posted by Paul Dirks
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May 6, 2008 12:55 PM
"Not a comforting thought...."
I find it strangely comforting, though, because it indicates that these factions might be able to come to an agreement once we are out of the picture. Rather than, you know, engaging in full-on genocide.
Posted by Cliff | May 6, 2008 1:03 PM
You're absolutely right, Robert Sullivan. It's a complex government, with lots of factions and institutions doing different things.
I don't know if it's the government so much as the clerical class. Juan Cole has mentioned that al-Sadr is spending his time studying in Iran in Qom, which is home to a clerical movement that opposes the hard-line ruling clerics.
The clerics who are running the country, Khamenei and the like, seem to generally be in support of one or another part of Maliki's governing coalition.
Posted by FastEddie | May 6, 2008 3:23 PM
I think that it must be very difficult to trace weapons to Tehran. Apparently, there is a large black market in Iraq for arms from Iran, US, Russia, Jordan... Also, as Robert Baer, former CIA field op, noted here in Time.com, weapons are constantly changing hands between militias as they fight and raid each other caches.
Interestingly enough, Juan Cole.com reports on Iran's influence today:
'The USG Open Source Center translates a discussion on al-Arabiya's Panorama program about Iranian intervention in Iraq.
May 5, 2008 Monday
Al-Arabiya discusses Iraq government, Al-Sadr Trend criticism of Iran role:
... when the United States accused Iran of interfering in Iraq to undermine its stability, Iran's supporters in the Iraqi Government, including the president and the prime minister, did not hesitate to defend Iran. However, ...the situation changed following Operation Charge of the Knights in Basra and the international conference that was held recently in Kuwait. ...the Kuwait international conference failed because Al-Maliki failed to convince the Arabs to reopen their embassies and to write off Iraq's debts. Hence, ...Al-Maliki had to criticize Iran in order to gain Arab support.
...former Iraqi Minister (of Transportation) Salam al-Maliki ...argues that the United States encouraged Iran to interfere in Iraq in light of its hostile position towards Iran which prompted it to defend itself and its presence. Al-Maliki stresses that Iran's role must be in support of the Iraqi people, and that any problem with any neighbouring country must be resolved through diplomatic means, not media outlets. He stresses that Al-Sadr Trend is not supported by Iran because Muqtada al-Sadr's decisions are not influenced by foreign pressure; that Iran's role in Iraq is not new; and that it was encouraged by the United States.
... With regard to the Al-Mahdi Army, ...the Iraqi Government, Iran, and the US forces want to disarm it ...Al-Maliki notes the absence of dialogue. He says that the Al-Sadr Trend believes in dialogue to resolve all problems, and that the problem is that the Iraqi Government is not holding dialogue. He notes that everyone is calling for disarming all militias, but that the existence of occupation forces that attack civilians and the absence of dialogue with the government complicate the situation.'
It seems that the US, Iraq and Tehran are not talking since none of them are being completely honest with each other. And that the only player calling for an independant Iraq that solves its problems through diplomacy is the one that no one wants to touch: al Sadr.
Posted by BMB | May 6, 2008 4:09 PM
JK, what do you think of the content of Bremer's interview with Al Jazeera?
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/4B9929B1-78AF-4FB0-845F-3DFC7E97DCE1.htm
Posted by Ffred | May 6, 2008 9:02 PM
Not a problem.
Hillary will nuke them as soon as she IS through with Florida and Michigan.
Posted by obamish
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May 7, 2008 2:29 AM
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