Edwards for Obama

I'm a big Edwards fan but I'm going to put this one in the BFD file.

This late in the game I don't know what good it does.
("really board"? Bored stiff? ) :)

Obama doesn't have a "white working class" problem.

If anything, he has an Appalachian problem.

Exactly right, horizonr, about the "Appalachian problem" and Obama's lack of appeal to this group. He nevertheless has appealed strongly to white, working-class voters in many other swing states in the Midwest and Intermountain West...and should do well in Montana, South Dakota and Oregon despite probable losses in Puerto Rico and Kentucky (there's that Appalachian problem again).

Nevertheless, the perception is going to dog Obama through the general election campaign and he has some work to do, even as he will put together a successful coalition from other demographic and age groups.

One more question: What took Edwards so long? Might his endorsement have been helpful in Indiana to end the primary campaign, considering how close the result was? And could Obama have used his endorsement in West Virginia to avoid such a lopsided result?

horizonr - You wrote: "If anything, he has an Appalachian problem."

But do you think that John Edwards has an Appalachian solution? Does this put Edwards in a good position for the VP slot? Can I speculate about multiple things at the same time?

I'm skeptical, Jay. I'm remembering your post here to the effect that Edwards could consider backing Clinton soon after he exited. You never know--he could change his mind in the air.

Very interesting, horizonr.

Thanks so much for the link.

At least we can stop talking about "white working class" as if there's some monolith out there that actually exists.

Well, at least we can stop talking about it, others can't seem to help themselves.

I don't like this. John Edwards may have working class roots but not for a long time. Obama should not look desperate. Things are going well. Hillary will play out her thread. Then she will be held to her statement that she will support the nominee.This will make Obama look like he needs Edwards. Too little, too late.

Obama has the capacity to speak directly to white workers ( I refuse to use working class) and that can be done during the main campaign.

Edwards: too clever by half. He could have endorsed Obama way back but did not do so. Cute is not in.

Hey JNS, I think that Horizonr's comment needs addressing since it does speak to a matter of demographic fact. Would love to know your thoughts.

John who?

C'mon.... I agree with the others. This is just kind of lame. Edwards barely pulled 10% of the vote anywhere except Iowa. Who cares who he endorses.

He must be angling for a position in an Obama administration, but as VP?? I don't see it, hmm, AG, that might be a good slot for him.

Edwards' delegates will likely vote Obama. I think he has 26 or 28. So, in that sense it matters.

Horizonr and Mike M., your point is well taken, it is an "Appalachian problem" as Obama does have a history of winning white votes in the midwest and elsewhere. Though Indiana's not exactly in the Appalacias, he did do better there than in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The timing is certainly interesting, as is the choice of venue: Michigan, a big union state. And, to be fair, he won Virginia pretty handily and that's home to a pretty big white working class vote. Also, Obama's done well (or is doing well) with white working class voters in other swing states that have levels well above the national average such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and Iowa. (The other swing states that have larger than norm working class white voter populations: New Mexico, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and New Mexico.) JNS

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Well my comment to the "Appalachian problem" is purely based on Obama's actions and statements. When you call people, "typical white" folk, then they are just "bitter", AND your favorite Pastor is a racist, and will say and do most anything to degrade the average working class white person. You, as his associate and Presidential candidate WILL have "problems" winning their vote.

Thankfully John McCain understands the plight of the working white middle class voter, and since Hillary looks like she is out of this race finally, unless she drops the Democrat Nominee NUCLEAR political BOMB that I know she and Bill have ready, this is all a discussion in futility for Obama.

I have one recommendation for Obama and his croonies. Save you money, and spend it on your "good friends in Chicago and San Francisco!!". I am sure they would glady take your money. Its no use coming to great Appalachian Mountains, you just might get tarred, feather and sent packing on a pole.

Rev Wright / Obama '08, WRONG for America!!!!!!!!!!

Say what you want about Rustydog, he's definitely not angry and bitter.

Hey, speaking of stupid BS, I just saw your article on Time's home page, about Obama's lapel pin.

What the F, JNS? What the F-ing F is that?

All right, I just read the story to make sure it was what I thought it was.

And it is. It's a bad article. Why is it plastered up there on the home page? To be fair, TIME also puts up articles on Miley Cyrus and American F--ing Idol, so it's not like your article is without company.

Is...is Stengel abusing you? It's all right. You can tell us.

I think that it is essentially over except writing the music for HRC.

A deal has been struck, I think.

Hillary just made a significant step in commenting, probably much to Rusty the Wonder Pooch's chagrin, that her supporters would make a 'grave mistake' in going for McFlipFlop.

It is a VERY interesting move on her part, because she is essentially defanging herself and reducing her threat posture towards Obama considerably.

The Edwards endorsement is mainly symbolic, because he's the only Dem with pledged delegates, and I'm thinking he's maximizing his influence by attempting to start the process of closing the door on Hillary's chances with the superdelegates.

Rustydog and Question Hillary see the writing on the wall...

Davis could point them in the general direction of hell, I think as well as anyone!

Great speech by Edwards. It does make me regret the fact that our very crappy press Breck Girl'd/$400 haircut Edwards instead of doing their f'ing jobs and not picking favorites.

I swear I am going to take a hostage if the media continues enabling McCain. He doesn't really love Hagee. He really doesn't love lobbyists. He loves us in the press corps the mostest!

He's not a super delegate? I thought that former Democratic office holders were granted super delegate status.

I am not an American. I have no beef with Hillary Clinton. I saw her today in a CNN interview with Wolf Blitzer and she impressed and moved me. She is an extraordinary candidate and if this thing doesn't go her way, what a waste.
She will do the right thing because she is a woman. Period. I hope she has the opportunity to run again.

I hope America survives Obama or McCain...for all our sakes. No matter what happens, though, the biggest loser is and will be the Democratic party, even more so than the American people, if that is possible.

And I will say: I told you so.

You know poh you can express your support for Hillary without bashing Obama. Now the same goes for Obama supporters. However, in the end Obama and Hillary are in the same party and one is going to support the other one when this process is over. The one who does not win is still going to have major input going forward.

poh123:

At least Obama and McFlipFlop offer widely different paths to total disaster.

Given that, I'll take the path less traveled.

The Republican path is littered with wreckage and at least, trying Obama's, I won't have to contend with the same old pigs at the same old troughs.

AND, on top of that, maybe we will finally be able to fix New Orleans with SOME of the money we save by getting out of Vietnam, er, I mean, Iraq!

On top of that, I won't have to listen to ragged choruses of 'Mistakes Were Made', which by the way, is being sung by an increasingly large and increasingly unmanageable choir!

I'm sorry, I can't pay attention to your post, JNS. I am too distracted by my effort to check everyone around me for flag lapel pins.

By the way, shouldn't all politicians be wearing yellow ribbon pins for our troops in Afghanistan & Iraq, lest they be thought to not support the troops? What about pink ribbon pins, lest they be thought to not support breast cancer research? Or a wriststrong bracelet.

How many pieces of flair is necessary to not insult the people of the United States, JNS?

Start writing about issues.

VAR,

Office Space references are kind of unfair attacks on people who could have subjects of the movie.

@Chris,
"He's not a super delegate? I thought that former Democratic office holders were granted super delegate status."

Former Presidents and VPs are, but I don't think all former Senators are supers. I don't see his name on DCW:

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

The impact of Edward's endorsement on Appalachian voters is debatable, but the impact on this news cycle is pretty strong. Hillary didn't even get 24 hours out of her win in WV. Once again the Obama campaign shows itself to be shrewd in the way it manages endorsements.

Someone PLEASE ...
... tell BILLARY Clinton to STOP agonizing us with her NONSENSICAL campaign!

Jay your vapid article in Time is awful.

Rhetorical question: Is being named Jay a qualifier for being a Swampland columnist? Does the lack of journalism skills also qualify you?

What are your professional credentials anyway?

JNS, thanks for your thoughtful response. But here's the thing, when you sum up everything you said, Obama really doesn't have a problem with the white working class but does have a problem (with some quibbles) with white voters in a defined geographical area of the country.

And those are two different problems. But, the distinctions are a little bit... nuanced.

And here's the problem... you're with us that there are differences but the differences are so nuanced as to make a magazine article barely readable. I'm a journalist too and I know this is a problem. Anyone who doubts me... read an academic journal article that takes all the nuances into account... it's so unreadable that you won't even get the gist. So... how do you deal with this? "Obama has a problem with white workingt voters" is demonstrably false. But he does have a problem, kind of, with white voters in the Appalachia regions, but not in all of them and in some districts that are like them but not in them. How do you write that not just artfully but even readably?

How brave of John HAIRDO Edwads, waiting until MAY 15TH to endorse the certain DNC winner!

How brave!

I agree with obamish. I feel dirty.

K

It is going to back fire. All these endorsements are going to backfire.

I think trifecta hit the nail on the head--it's quite possible Edwards just won the nomination for Obama.

No, Edwards isn't a superdelegate (not a former president, VP, speaker, majority or minority leader). He's a super-duper-delegate, in a sense. Superdelegates have one vote each. Edwards has about 18 (31 counting Florida)--the delegates pledged to him from before he suspended his campaign. Those delegates can now vote for whomever they want, but by endorsing Obama, Edwards is strongly hinting where they should go.

How does this help? Well, remember that Clinton is insisting that Michigan and Florida be counted. Using current delegate figures from http://demconwatch.blogspot.com and Slate's delegate calculator at http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/, I made some assumptions:
* Clinton will win Kentucky 65%-35% (33 delegates to Obama's 18)
* Obama will win Oregon 60%-40% (31 delegates to Clinton's 21)
* Clinton will win Puerto Rico 60%-40% (33 delegates to Obama's 22)
* Obama will win Montana 60%-40% (10 delegates to Clinton's 6)
* Obama will win South Dakota 60%-40% (9 delegates to Clinton's 6).

With these numbers, neither will gain a majority of *pledged* delegates if MI and FL are counted as is. They need 1,783.5 and Obama will have only about 1757.5. More, Obama will need 156 superdelegates (58% of those who are currently uncommitted), or Clinton will need 200 (74%). If neither gets that threshold in this scenario, we go into convention not knowing the nominee for certain.

But if all of Edward's delegates go to Obama, the math changes in a big way. Those additional 31 delegates give Obama 1,788.5 pledged delegates--a majority (barely). And he would only need 125 of the uncommitted supers (less than half).

(Note: I'm keeping the 55 uncommitted regular delegates from Michigan as uncommitted; in reality, these delegates have been selected now and many of them do support Obama, so that's an additional cushion for him.)

So, Clinton can go ahead and have MI and FL counted. If Edwards' delegates all go to Obama, it won't make a scrap of difference.

Mike M.,
I agree, it's a quandrary. The short hand in the CW is that he has a problem with white working class voters and most folks Inside the Beltway know that's code for a certain type of voter, but you're right to distinguish. And you're right, there's no easy way to define those voters. Pollsters will say non-college educated white working class voters. the Obama campaign draws the distinctions along age lines -- they get younger Appalacia voters and Clinton gets the older ones, though those lines also draw some problems as Ruy Texeira at Brookings has so smartly pointed out. One can try and break it down by income and sex but when it comes down to it Obama has a Dukes of Hazzard problem, for lack of a better popular reference. And they are this cycle's soccer moms, security dads, what have you. JNS

JNS,

Thanks for responding, but your comment is not really responsive. Two things:

(1) The point that horizonr was making is that what is typically expressed in the political press as a "white working-class" problem has a very strong *regional* aspect to it that has gone unreported. You don't really address that. We know that the "CW" is -- we were hoping you would rise above the CW and offer some new insights.

(2) "[T]hey are this cycle's soccer moms, security dads, what have you"

I'm not sure what this means. If you mean "the subset of the electorate that is crucial to determining victory," then I don't think that has been shown. In terms of the democratic primary, pretty much the opposite seems to be true.

If you mean "empty, not really relevant category trumped up by political advisors and spinners and endlessly repeated by political reporters who just follow what the other reporters on the bus say," then I suppose you are correct. Which one it it?

Obama/Edwards Ticket:

I believe the VP choice for Obama is John Edwards. I see them as the dream team the media tries to ignore. I created a petition to get that suggestion out there, before it get too late. They both share the same vision for change. Use the link below so we can get this ball rolling.

http://www.gopetition.com/petitions/john-edwards-as-obama-vice-president.html

Please forward to as many of your family, friends, and groups that you can!

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