Swampland, TIME

The Texas Primacus--uh, Caucary

The Washington Post has a couple of interesting stories today about Texas' bizarre system for choosing its 228 Democratic convention delegates. It's a combination primary (which Clinton's team says will be good for her, given her longer relationships in the state) and caucuses (which Obama expects to win, if earlier contests in this season are any indication). The caucuses, where 35% of delegates are awarded, begin shortly after the polls close on primary day, March 4. And to vote in the caucus, you have to have already voted in the primary.

The whole system reflects the post-apocalyptic landscape that the state has become for Democrats. It was designed to give a lot of power to party insiders--of whom there were fewer and fewer over the past 20 years. These caucuses have been so sparsely attended in recent elections, I am told by a Clinton campaign strategist who is trying to figure all of this out, that it was not unheard of for fewer people to show up than there were delegate spots being given out, so caucus-goers would be reduced to calling friends and asking them if they were free and wanted to come down and become a convention delegate.

Obviously, with so much on the line in a close Democratic nominating contest, poor attendance is not likely to be a problem this year. But unlike Iowa, which has a long history of organizing caucuses, and Nevada, which had many months to prepare, Texas is just now beginning to grapple with running these caucuses in the face of what promises to be a huge wave of new voters. Meanwhile, the campaigns are making, quite literally, tens of thousands of calls into the state to look for volunteers to be caucus organizers. They have good reason to be scrambling. As the Post notes:

The caucuses have also given rise to a separate concern, according to several top Texas Democrats interviewed last week. Because the state's Democratic Party has been out of power for years, leaders have struggled to find precinct chairs to oversee all of the 8,000 locations where caucuses will be held.

If it is time for the caucus and there is no precinct chair, party officials decided, the task of overseeing the vote will fall to the first person who collects the packet of materials used to run the caucus.

That should be fun to watch.


Confusing enough yet? That is just the beginning. Unlike in other states, where delegates are awarded along congressional district lines, Texas has a system where they are awarded along the lines of state senate districts, but they are far from evenly apportioned. Instead, districts get bonus delegates for heavy Democratic turnout in general election contests for President and Governor--contests that, in recent years, haven't been competitive in Texas, so overall turnout is low. The biggest beneficiaries are places like inner-city Houston and latte-liberal Austin. (The Lone Star Project has this breakdown.) This means that Latino districts of South Texas will get far less than their share. Here's how the Houston Chronicle explains it:

In the heavily urban, African-American districts of state Sens. Rodney Ellis of Houston and Royce West of Dallas, a good voter turnout in the past two elections means a combined total of 13 delegates are at stake in the two districts on Election Day.

Obama nationally has been winning eight out of 10 black voters, according to network exit polls.

But in the heavily Hispanic districts of state Sens. Juan Hinojosa of McAllen and Eddie Lucio Jr. of Brownsville, election turnout was low, and a combined total of seven delegates are at stake.

Clinton has been taking six of 10 Hispanic votes nationally.

So, a big South Texas win might not mean as much for Clinton as a big win for Obama in the two black districts.

Wait, wait, there's more:

An additional 42 at-large delegates are awarded at the state convention in June.

Those delegates are pledged to individual candidates based on participation that begins in precinct caucuses on election night and ends in senatorial district caucuses at the state convention.

The state convention also elects 35 superdelegates and an additional 25 pledged-party and elected-official delegates.

Garcia, the state representative and Obama supporter, said his candidate is bringing in the staffers who helped win the Iowa caucuses, knowing that not all is decided in the primary election.

The only good thing you can say about this system is it beats the old way of doing things. I guess. Wonder how they will be voting in Box 13.

UPDATE: The Lone Star Project has come up with this delegate calculator, which also has demographic information and voting history of the different districts.

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Reader Comments (55)

HH:

I never understood Texas until I read Cormac McCarthy. This is a place beyond primitive, where everything has been boiled down to the mean bones of kill or be killed.

The chronicle of the scalphunters in "Bood Meridian" will give you chills and haunt you forever. You don't know the human potential for evil until you follow this odyssey.

After reading McCarthy, E. Howard Hunt's deathbed confession that LBJ arranged Kennedy's assassination does not seem outlandish, and the ferocity and profound brutality of the Vietnam and Iraq wars can be seen as a logical consequence of the Texan imperative: kill or be killed.

Even the most distant descendants of Texas original sinners, like KT, exhibit a steeliness and absolute unflinching persistence in error that is simply baffling to an ordinary person. At least KT has found a sympathetic employer, Time-Warner-Moloch corporation.

ivb:

"And to vote in the caucus, you have to have already voted in the primary."

So you get two votes?

Good grief! This whole thing is beyond bizarre. Thanks for outlining it, Karen.

vicious maniac:

I never understood Texas until I read Cormac McCarthy. This is a place beyond primitive, where everything has been boiled down to the mean bones of kill or be killed.

Totally, remember Pee-Wee's Big Adventure? Those mean Alamo tour guides just laugh in the face of that poor bike-missing bastard, just for asking where the basement is. It was complete social-Darwinist carnage.

On-topic:

The only good thing you can say about this system is it beats the old way of doing things. I guess.

Oof, can only imagine whatever the old system was...

Karen Tumulty:

KT here--

VM: The old way was pretty awful. The Box 13 reference in my post was to the Duval County party bosses who stole the Senate election for LBJ in 1948 Democratic primary. In those days, they liked to cut out the voters entirely.

Paul Dirks Author Profile Page:

Austin = latte-liberal

Is this as opposed to "Cro-Mangon"?

Just because a stereotype isn't racial doesn't make it any less a stereotype or any less offensive.

Or shall we just assume because Austin has a University that smart people are Liberals are Conservatives are morons.....oh wait!

Memekiller Author Profile Page:

Texas doesn't count. Neither do primaries. Winning the general election doesn't necessarily mean you're the best candidate, either. [/mark penn]

For someone who's appeal is she knows how to roll up her sleeves and play politics with the big boys, and has more experience (in the state), you'd think you already know the rules.

Oregon JC:

HH,

Now you have my undying man love--CM my fav novelist going on 15 yrs (sadly, yes, I didn't discover America's best living writer until ATPH). Blood Meridian the 20th century's Moby Dick. Have taught him for yrs. now. How fitting that KT mentions a "post-apocalyptic landscape"--if Time et al keep things up, if we elect Mac or Hill at least, we may yet see The Road's vision in all its grandeur.

Anyway, KT, other than AMC's Myspace pg, errrr, blog postings here, does anyone else still work in the bayou? Not only are you the lone gunwoman as far as engaging the rabble, but it appears that your cohorts have abandoned boat entirely. Where are the king and queen of the homecoming parade--Mike & Jay, and, of course, our old fav's Joe and Joe jr.

Memekiller Author Profile Page:

I am told by a Clinton campaign strategist who is trying to figure all of this out

Posted without comment.

JaneBecker Author Profile Page:

It might be easier to figure out if you just parse what Obama is saying:

http://thedamedomain.blogspot.com/2008/02/parsing-obama.html

Memekiller Author Profile Page:

And may I just add, Obama supporters were making this point at Carpetbagger weeks ago... and the Clinton camp is just figuring this out?

HH:

Oregon JC,

I just read that Ridley Scott is making a film of "Blood Meridian." This could be the ultimate nihilistic western that blows you out of the movie theater, or just a gaudy, philosophically neutered piece of Hollywood grunt and boom junk cinema. I hope the bleak spirit of the book survives the movie treatment.

McCarthy tells us some very deep and unpleasant truths about the nature of adventurers, and since most Americans are descended from adventurers and risk takers of varying sorts, his grim vision is an X-ray of the American character.

A remarkable constant in McCarthy's characters is a dogged, heroic persistence in doomed endeavors. Bush's pursuit of "victory" in Iraq is right out of the Border Trilogy. It's just a plain stupid scheme and unlikely to end well, but he just won't quit it.

On the Texas frontier, natural selection favored this trait of ferocious tenacity. Unfortunately, contemporary American leaders carrying the trait of tenacious and violent pursuit of folly now have nuclear weapons at their disposal. Cue "The Road" plot summary.

Karen Tumulty:

KT here--

Okay, HH, now you've got me. So what do we think was the triggering event for "The Road"? An environmental disaster? A nuclear war? A very, very close election?

ghostlawns:

hilzoy who is guest-blogging for Andrew Sullivan posted this excellent view of Team Hillary's utter incompetence regarding Texas. Definitely worth a look.


All this talk of Cormac McCarthy is very refreshing. I was first introduced to Blood Meridian in college a few years ago and for a project, I made a short film using imagery from the novel. So I'm looking forward to a decent/gruesome feature adaptation.

Memekiller Author Profile Page:

As a Houstonian, HH, I have to say, it's more Kafka than McCarthy.

Spike3905:

Karen, I have a question that wasn't mentioned in the Post or your piece. Are the available delegates in Hispanic state senate districts smaller than urban African American districts because of (1)lower overall voter turnout in those districts?; or (2) lower Democratic vote in those districts? My bottom line question is this: Are there fewer delegates at stake in the heavily Hispanic districts because of the share of the Hispanic vote that George W. Bush took in Texas in 2004?

T for Texas:

As a Texan, I can say that I applaud the goals of the Texas Democratic Party which are to 1. encourage new voters to get to the polls and 2. encourage voters to continuing to get to the polls.

The primaries are open, which encourage new voters to get out and participate. We hear how “closed primaries” and “caucuses” exclude people from participating so this is a great opportunity for people to get engaged. I would expect to see record numbers in Texas this year – following the nationwide trend.

At the same time, Texas hasn’t been the easiest place to be a Democrat for the past several decades. So the party needs to encourage its members to get out and vote consistently. While they may not win, this keeps the party at least somewhat relevant in the state. (losing 60-40 is better than 80-20) Also, I think it’s fair to say that you want the people voting in the primaries also to get out and vote in the general elections.

So the party’s goal of growing the party by welcoming new voters and building them into regular voters makes sense.

I agree it’s a little confusing the way it works, but I don’t think Chili Cookoffs (the TRUE Texas way to settle a contest) would be accepted by the national DNC. Although it would be a delicious alternative!

HH:

"Okay, HH, now you've got me. So what do we think was the triggering event for "The Road"? An environmental disaster? A nuclear war? A very, very close election?"

Howdy, KT,

We can work backwards from the nuclear winter effects and the multiple nuclear explosions reported at the outset of the story to conclude that a large, widespread nuclear attack on the US has occurred. According to Wikipedia, the father and son commence their trek in eastern Tennessee. The Knoxville area would receive multiple warhead strikes only in the event of a large exchange. Most likely it would be the result of failed brinkmanship of the US against an anti-US coalition (let us take the oil or we will nuke you), or the result of a runaway tit-for-tat exchange (you sink my carrier, and I'll nuke your airbase).

Working backwards from the massive attack, we come to a Gingrich presidency in, say 2016, enabled by Time Magazine and straight-shooting Karen Tumulty. Americans infuriated by gas lines, rolling blackouts, and the humiliation of casualties suffered during a complete withdrawal from Iraq are persuaded that unsheathing the sword of the nation's nuclear arsenal will restore American dominance.

Gingrich delivers ultimatums to all of the Mideast oil states to surrender control of their oil fields to US administration or to face strikes from enhanced radiation weapons that will kill their populations and leave the oil infrastructure intact. The European Union, Russia, and China object. Time Magazine salutes Gingrich on his bold initiative and rallies public support. Karen Tumulty writes how Gingrich, with his new super-majorities in Congress has the "people's mandate."

China establishes a "red line" prohibiting deployment of US Naval forces in the Persian Gulf, adjacent to Iran, a treaty ally China is committed to defend. Time Magazine dismisses this as a bluff. A Chinese-supplied Iranian submarine sinks a US aircraft carrier in the Gulf. Massive US airstrikes cripple the Iranian Navy, and the US positions forces for an invasion of Iran and the re-occupation of Iraq.

China decides to intervene and destroys an entire US surface action group with a single tactical nuclear cruise missile. The US retaliates by obliterating a Chinese naval base on the PRC mainland. Time Magazine salutes President Gingrich for his "measured" response. All US nuclear forces are on maximum alert, when a rogue US officer deliberately sends an unauthorized launch order to a single US missile submarine. This submarine unleashes its full complement of 100 nuclear warheads against the 50 largest cities in China, killing 20 million people in two hours.

China, believing a full pre-emptive nuclear strike is under way orders all of its missile submarines to strike. The five deployed Chinese ballistic missile submarines launch 100 warheads against the United States, killing 15 million people within two hours and incinerating the 50 largest cities in America. America retaliates with a full nuclear strike on China, delivering 1000 nuclear warheads on Chinese targets, killing a further 200 million people.

Russia, perceiving an out-of-control American nuclear doomsday machine, strikes pre-emptively and delivers 500 nuclear warheads on America cities, killing an additional 50 million peoople. Publication of Time Magazine is suspended. The plot of "The Road" commences.

That is how Time Magazine and Karen Tumulty can destroy the world ten years from now.

KathyR:

Karen - here's a breakdown for likely delegates from the primary- laid out district by district with rationale, and why Obama is likely to get 98 delegates to Hillary's 95, even if he loses the popular vote.

http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=751

I believe I posted this link last week in a comment on an entry here. You all could have scooped the post if you read your comments better.

stuart_zechman:

JaneBecker:

This is disingenuous parsing at best.

...when he made his infamous speech in Chicago, six months before the war began, he never came right out and said ‘I am opposed to the war in Iraq’. http://usliberals.about.com/od/extraordinaryspeeches/a/Obama2002War.htm --Jane Becker's English professor acquaintance

How could anybody with an interest in honesty not conclude that Barack Obama was expressing clear opposition to the proposed war in Iraq from this part of his speech:

Now let me be clear: I suffer no illusions about Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal man. A ruthless man. A man who butchers his own people to secure his own power.... The world, and the Iraqi people, would be better off without him.

But I also know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States, or to his neighbors...and that in concert with the international community he can be contained until, in the way of all petty dictators, he falls away into the dustbin of history.

I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences.

I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.

I am not opposed to all wars. I'm opposed to dumb wars. So for those of us who seek a more just and secure world for our children, let us send a clear message to the president.--Barack Obama, from said speech

This is a reasonable criticism:

...his claim that he’s been against the war since the beginning does give me pause because really, what does he mean by the beginning? If he means since the beginning of his tenure in the U.S. Senate, then it’s a false statement because he has voted in favor of every Iraq war resolution since coming to D.C.--Jane Becker's English professor acquaintance

But I don't think that the credibility of such deserved criticism is well served by parsing Obama's speech in such a deliberately obtuse manner as to derive a blatantly false meaning. It's like taking me to task for not being explicit enough about the sun having risen in the East in my statement "Hello and Good Morning". Don't get me wrong, I think that the sooner that thinking people start to focus on pressuring Barack Obama instead of cheerleading, the better. So please help us understand why you thought it was a good idea to imply that Obama's pre-war speech wasn't actually prior advocacy against the war in Iraq, if you have the time...

Thank you.

Karen Tumulty:

KT here--

HH, I would have read the book differently if I'd have known that the whole thing was MY FAULT. And, yes, KathyR, I wish I had noticed that comment earlier.

On the question of why the Hillary Clinton campaign was not prepared for this, I think it is part of a larger problem that I talked about some in my story in this week's DTTime:

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1713270,00.html

Her campaign was built on inevitability, a haughty operation so confident it would have the nomination wrapped up by now that it didn't even put a field organization in place for the states that were to come after the megaprimary on Feb. 5.

All that said, however, she's still in the lead in the polls in Texas. And if there is anything we have all learned this primary season, it is not to assume anything.

HH:

"HH, I would have read the book differently if I'd have known that the whole thing was MY FAULT."

Well, KT, I understand that Texas grit means not letting reasoning get in the way of doing your job. I'm sure you won't let a little risk of nuclear winter stop your straight-shooting determination to serve the Time-Warner-Moloch corporation. After all, how could Time Magazine helping elect a war-crazy psycho to the White House harm anyone? It's not like you, personally, would be turning the launch keys. How could it be your fault?

Mr. Stengel wants to see stories that make Americans feel good about themselves. Killing everyone who gets in our way as we suck all the oil out of the world can be presented as a feel good epic of American adventure. That is your challenge, and I'm sure that you have what it takes to succeed.

Memekiller Author Profile Page:

HH does not speak for me.

stuart_zechman:

Before I get in the middle of more things, I'd just like to say thank you very much, Karen.

I had no idea that TX was this insane for Democrats.

You are doing excellent work laying out for your readers the evidence of a poorly constructed, badly managed primary system. Now it's our job to make the case that the Democratic party system needs reform, regardless of whoever wins.

Thanks again for a splendid, fascinating piece.

HH:

Now, now, now. Look at this. The Texas primary system does not accurately reflect the views of the Texas voters. This means that the degree to which Texans want violence to be the principal tool of American foreign policy is not accurately reflected in their voting for candidates. This is serious.

A fairer and more efficiently constructed system would tell us more precisely just how cruel and callous the Texas voters are. The Texans are proud of leading the nation in executions, year after year, and it was this zeal in executing convicts (most of whom were probably guilty) that propelled their Governor, George Bush, Jr. into the White House. President Bush's latest popular move is announcing his plans to execute terrorists at Guantanamo (some of whom are probably guilty). You just can't take that Texas zest for killing out of a good old boy from Midland.

Some may say that Texans will eventually be assimilated into America and turn away from their barbaric behavior, but unfortunately our window of salvation is limited. You see, America is going to run out of oil in a few years, and the Texans will not yet have put down their nooses and firearms when that happens. The consequences will probably be most unfortunate.

HH:

Let's listen to a fine Texas politician, Representative Lamar Smith:

Smith began by saying, "I just want to express the personal opinion that I hope the administration will not be defensive about using some admittedly harsh but nonlethal interrogation techniques, even techniques that might lead someone to believe they're being drowned even if they're not."

Not content with his own take on American public opinion, Smith wanted Mukasey's opinion. Wouldn't you agree, he wanted to know, that 99% of the American people would endorse such techniques if they were used on a "known terrorist" with a "high expectation" that such information could save thousands of American lives?

Source: http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/goper_99_of_americans.php

Does this man speak for the desolate hinterlands of Texas? Why no, his district includes Travis county, right adjacent to Austin, where many Texans have learned to read and write.

vicious maniac:

KT:

The old way was pretty awful. The Box 13 reference in my post was to the Duval County party bosses who stole the Senate election for LBJ in 1948 Democratic primary. In those days, they liked to cut out the voters entirely.

Ah, that's riiight...George Parr, the Duke of Deval and champion of the so-called "Boss Rule" that (IMHO) is alive and well in this new gilded age, still trying to exploit the voice of immigrants through subtler ways like identity pandering, race baiting and microtrending.

Anyhoo, great post.

J.J. Author Profile Page:

I mostly ignore HH, as I said in a previous thread...

Memekiller: "I am told by a Clinton campaign strategist who is trying to figure all of this out"

Posted without comment.

Atrios has a comment:

http://atrios.blogspot.com/2008_02_17_archive.html#2422166930029156699

HH:

"I mostly ignore HH"

Thus you would conclude that small details about how the Texas primaries are organized are more important than the large issue of Texan savagery driving America toward endless war.

If the news is trivial, and supports innocuous chit-chat, then all is well. If the news is terrible, and threatens our future, someone must be ranting and should be ignored.

Time Magazine and its writers have made reality into the ultimate convenience product: cheap, disposable, easily digested, habit forming, and guaranteed not to provoke thought.

petertorgg:

Latino Vote is swinging to Obama. Just watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl0wh1ZLMl4

J.J. Author Profile Page:

Thus you would conclude that small details about how the Texas primaries are organized are more important than the large issue of Texan savagery driving America toward endless war.

"Thus you would conclude"?

Dude, you don't know enough about me to conclude jack about what I do and do not find important.

And you also don't know enough about Karen, either. In which case, you should be a little more generous in assigning motives.

I happen to think the Texan species of wingnut is a pretty interesting. Witness the Texas GOP platform:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2003_10/002380.php

I also think what I've read of Michael Lind's take on Texas seems plausible:

http://www.dailyhowler.com/dh110804.shtml (Scroll down to "for those who read.")

While no doubt I don't have the whole story, I don't have any question that there's a sizable wingnut contingent in Texas, with some serious historic roots.

But what does that have to do with Karen's reporting? (Which you monotonously berate.)

Always commenting at the same loud volume and consistently attacking people ad hominem is a good way to get people to lose interest in what you post. I know I have.

Oregon JC:

HH,

Yeah, a film of BM has been in the works for close to a decade. Given that Scott's most revolutionary work is, what, Thelma & Louise (I still say Dick's Androids turned Blade Runner was stripped clean), I'm not getting too hopeful. I'm still on a high from the Coen's brilliant adap of NCFOM (they struck all the major evocative chords from the novel, but where it was a minimalist screenplay waiting to happen, BM has the makings of a 10 hour miniseries directed by Malick with 300 million to spend). And don't get me started on what Billy Bob done did to ATPH, an absolute travesty, though, if you believe him it was all the studio's fault. My prediction--uber carnage and the revisionism/critique inherent in CM's vision is left on the cutting room floor. But one can dream.

HH:

"you also don't know enough about Karen"

Character is defined by action. From a behavioral perspective, it does not matter if KT prays to Satan every morning or if she is imbued with extraordinary personal virtue. She functions as an integral part of a propaganda machine that normalizes the crimes of the permanent government of the United States, a group that includes the owners of and advertisers in Time Magazine.

I am perfectly willing to accept that KT does her job with good intentions. Does that change the result? Does that alter the fact that every punch in her story on the adulteration of Federal scientific research is weak, and the criticisms are blunted by CYA statements of Bush officials? If this is "responsible journalism," then Bush is a compassionate conservative.

A consciencious reporter would have tied together the common threads of interference with scientific inquiry over the dozens of known instances, and made the obvious case for an ideologically motivated program, launched from the White House, to intervene in all Federal research programs to appease the Religious Right. Tumulty did not even include cases from her prior Time articles on Bush interference with Federal scientific panels.

KT completely omits the notorious case of the 24-year-old Bush hack who tried to screw up NASA presentations on cosmology:

George C. Deutsch, the young presidential appointee at NASA who told public affairs workers to limit reporters' access to a top climate scientist and told a Web designer to add the word "theory" at every mention of the Big Bang, resigned yesterday, agency officials said.

Mr. Deutsch's resignation came on the same day that officials at Texas A&M University confirmed that he did not graduate from there, as his résumé on file at the agency asserted.

Officials at NASA headquarters declined to discuss the reason for the resignation.

Source: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/2/7/235242/2998

In short, with the substantial resources of Time Magazine, Tumulty was not allowed to build a complete and damning case, including charts, tables, and timelines showing that these actions must have been directed by Bush apparatchiks. The impression the article leaves is that there is some evidence of interference, but Bush has plausible deniability - and that's just what Richard Stengel wanted, to cover Bush's a$$.

HH:

Oregon JC,

Scott's egregious "Blackhawk Down," Bush's favorite movie, and a paen to bloody failure, does not make me hopeful about his handling of "Blood Meridian." I expect that he will attempt to make the massacres entertaining.

BM is about the prolonged and excruciating descent of a band of men into organized, banal evil, and especially one man, the Judge, who is a master of nihilistic evil. This is not the stuff of classic Ridley Scott rock-em, sock-em cinema entertainment.

Because BM is anti-heroic, with a protagonist who is a cypher, the character of the Judge is central, so I think Scott will be tempted to write in a hero. It looks like it may be one of those projects that has a series of screenwriters quitting in disgust. Still, we may be surprised and find that Scott produces the perfect anti-Western.

CMike:

OK Karen, I'll bite. You write:


******************
This is not the race that Clinton thought she would be running. Her campaign was built on inevitability, a haughty operation so confident it would have the nomination wrapped up by now that it didn't even put a field organization in place for the states that were to come after the megaprimary on Feb. 5...

Bill and Hillary Clinton, who came of age in politics a generation ago, no longer have the touch for the electorate they once did.

Now, having blown through more than $120 million, Clinton's campaign is struggling to build a campaign from scratch in Ohio and Texas, with political observers in near agreement that a failure to win both could be fatal.
**************

You and your collegues seem all of one mind that any major candidate, any major candidate named Clinton that is, who might lose a nomination bid or an election is a fundamentally flawed person or campaigner. Why exactly do you, as a reporter, choose to explain things in those terms?

If the Clintons had known a year ago Sen. Clinton was going to be in a desperate struggle for the nomination what would they have done differently? You say the should have set up operations around the country to be competitive after February 5.

I don't know about that. They probably calculated in the worst case scenario, the primary and caucus schedule was front loaded, that that was to Sen. Clinton's advantage, and they should maximize that advantage. Had they had hints about how the campaign would unfold, why wouldn't they have decided that pouring it on in the first five weeks of '08 was still their best strategy.

How would they have figured out that though Hillary Clinton could not deliver a knock-out blow early on against her strongest competitor there was some alternative strategy whereby the campaign would spend less in the early states, be less successful in those states which voted during the January 3 to February 5 period as a result, and be more competitive in the long run?

There's other ways to look at this. Maybe Hillary should have skipped Iowa, a problematic state for her, and diminished the impact of an Obama win there.

Maybe she should have started squawking about the General Electric hit job on her (and the Dems) earlier. Oh, that's right you think GE plays it straight down the middle. Last spring, NBC hosted the first intra party debates of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party presidential candidates.

Courtesy of Bob Somerby, here are the first questions asked at those two debates:

*****************
A TALE OF TWO QUESTIONS:

BRIAN WILLIAMS, OPENING QUESTION (4/26/07): Senator Clinton, your party's leader in the United States Senate, Harry Reid, recently said the war in Iraq is lost. A letter to today's USA Today calls his comments "treasonous" and says if General Patton were alive today, Patton would wipe his boots with Senator Reid. Do you agree with the position of your leader in the Senate?

CHRIS MATTHEWS, OPENING QUESTION (5/3/07): In the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll, just 22 percent believe this country is on the right track. Mayor Giuliani, how do we get back to Ronald Reagan's morning in America?
*******************

I had a sense in early January that before it was over "the media" was going to Swift Boat Clinton's campaign as racist and that happened.

You report that the Clinton campaign has "blown through more than $120 million." Just how much money has the Obama campaign spent to date? Was any of the Obama money "blown"?

It seems to me that Hillary Clinton has been a great candidate who has run a good campaign. She's up against a great candidate who has run a great campaign.

So why such a pejorative tone about the Clinton campaign, Karen? I guess you'll say your public is looking for more from you than straight reporting.

karen tumulty:

KT here--

That story was based on much more than conjecture. I did a lot of reporting, including interviews with top officials of the Clinton campaign, who are willing to speak on background, but not on the record. (I have been covering these folks for many years, as you probably know.) They are the ones who believe that there were some serious miscalculations made, and the fundraisers in particular are appalled at how much money was spent and where it went. Specifically, they believe the campaign spent way too much money in Iowa--a state that Hillary Clinton's top strategists, including Mark Penn, were telling her she would win, right up until the morning of the caucuses. I am also told that when the fundraising reports come through for South Carolina, we are also going to see an extraordinary amount of money spent for no return. As the story states, a fair number of Clinton campaign officials are also quite alarmed that there were no plans put into place post-Feb. 5. Putting more resources into organizing is a fight that some within the campaign have been waging for months, to no avail. But now, there is a widespread recognition that they have failed to build a field operation that is anything close to matching Obama's. This is one of the reasons that Clinton has fired her campaign manager, and brought in a new set of strategists to supplement the ones that she has. Obama has also spent a lot of money, but I think both campaigns would agree that he has gotten much more for it, considering where he started and where he is now.

karen tumulty:

KT here--

Oops. That last comment was in response to CMike. Again, I have covered these folks for a long time, and I believe my reporting on them holds up pretty well. I have not written them off, but given my best assessment of where the campaign stands, from what are literally dozens of interviews with people inside the campaign, and with Democratic campaign veterans whose judgment on these things I have come to respect over many years of reporting.

J.J. Author Profile Page:

Character is defined by action... KT completely omits the notorious case of the 24-year-old Bush hack who tried to screw up NASA presentations on cosmology...

O character swami, Karen's story went to press on Feb. 05, 2006. Andrew Revkin's feature on Deutsch didn't get published until February 8, with a very brief mention on Feb 4:

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=George_C._Deutsch

This is Revkin's beat, not Karen's. And Karen writes for a weekly magazine, not a daily newspaper like Revkin at the New York Times.

I think Karen's failing to scoop Revkin doesn't say anything about Karen's character, but instead about the logistics of getting information and sources outside her beat, or possibly something about a picky editor.

HH, I'm afraid you're suffering from a terminal case of Nerdfury.

CMike:

Losing South Carolina as big as Sen. Clinton did lose it was a turning point in the campaign. So how can you say the Clinton campaign was wrong to take a desperate stab there? What would the press have said at if had Clinton shown an unwillingness to compete for a state with a majority black Democratic registration?

What does it matter what Mark Penn was saying on the day of the Iowa caucus? The question is what was he saying a month or so before that, or whenever Hillary declared she was going to compete in Iowa. What were her options? How would it have played out if she had skipped Iowa?

Believe me, I have a very negative opinion of Penn and Terry McAuliffe. However, since the South lost the Civil War "if only they had only listened to me, if only they had adopted my plan" has been a steady refrain in American history. I have no doubt you're hearing plenty of this but shouldn't some of this be taken with a grain of salt?

Once Sen. Obama became recognized as a viable challenger, Sen. Clinton was up against it. Obama is pulling down, what, 80% of Democratic blacks, and blacks make-up 20 plus percent of the the Democratic Party. Wasn't keeping Obama from getting on a roll Job #1 for the Clinton campaign?

Seems to me the Clinton campaign's biggest mistake was not making a stronger effort earlier to internet fund raise from small donors.

HH:

"I think Karen's failing to scoop Revkin doesn't say anything about Karen's character, but instead about the logistics of getting information and sources outside her beat, or possibly something about a picky editor."

Nice try, but the unassembled pieces of science meddling evidence on Karen's desk remain unexplained. A Harvard B-School grad typically does not have trouble connecting the dots. So we have KT publishing three separate pieces on instances of interference by the Bush administration in Federal scientific research without ever being allowed to make a synthesis and build a case for a coordinated campaign of interference directed by the White House.

I am not a prominent journalist, but I can imagine using a large sheet of paper to chart the trails of interference with research at numerous scientific agencies and following them back to a common point of origin. I believe this is called investigative reporting.

You don't win Pulitzer Prizes by backing away from obvious scandals this way, but you do stay employed by Time Magazine. Character is defined by inaction as well as by action, and it appears that KT failed this test.

karen tumulty:

KT here--

I am so remiss in responding to T for Texas. As someone who was once on a team that cooked in the Chilimpiad in San Marcos, I like your idea of settling everything with a chili cookoff. Our chili failed to place, probably because by the time it was done, beer was the main ingredient. we just kept pouring more and more of it in. it was sort of the ron paul of chilis.

J.J. Author Profile Page:

So we have KT publishing three separate pieces on instances of interference by the Bush administration in Federal scientific research without ever being allowed to make a synthesis and build a case for a coordinated campaign of interference directed by the White House.

From the article:

Starting when he was a presidential candidate in 2000, George W. Bush has often assured voters that his policymaking would be guided by "sound science." Last week, in his State of the Union address, the President pointed to scientific research as the way to "lead the world in opportunity and innovation for decades to come." Yet growing numbers of researchers, both in and out of government, say their findings--on pollution, climate change, reproductive health, stem-cell research and other areas in which science often finds itself at odds with religious, ideological or corporate interests--are being discounted, distorted or quashed by Bush Administration appointees.

The article doesn't breathe fire like, say, a Chris Mooney article would, but it tells the researchers' story in pretty clear terms.

No doubt there are things to be outraged about out there, HH, but I think in this case your outrage meter is having difficulties getting a correct reading.

stuart_zechman:

Thanks for responding to CMike, Karen.

Unfortunately, your accounts raise more questions than answers...

vicious maniac:

Our chili failed to place, probably because by the time it was done, beer was the main ingredient. we just kept pouring more and more of it in. it was sort of the ron paul of chilis.

Wha?? That's a brilliant, downright Machiavellian path to chili victory, how could it not place? Very poor judging.

Losing South Carolina as big as Sen. Clinton did lose it was a turning point in the campaign. So how can you say the Clinton campaign was wrong to take a desperate stab there? What would the press have said at if had Clinton shown an unwillingness to compete for a state with a majority black Democratic registration?

Probably little in the long run if Clinton had cemented clearer, greater victories as a result of it. Would've validated Team Clinton's capabilities and hype a bit. Bill/Ickes/Penn/Wolfson spin it into mother's milk afterwards. TC counters any racebaiting from MSN-Sleeze-E, others. Who knows really.

Once Sen. Obama became recognized as a viable challenger, Sen. Clinton was up against it. Obama is pulling down, what, 80% of Democratic blacks, and blacks make-up 20 plus percent of the the Democratic Party. Wasn't keeping Obama from getting on a roll Job #1 for the Clinton campaign?

This is precisely why they are having trouble with Obama, IMHO. They try to knock him down from #1 (even when he wasn't #1) while he set about inspiring legions of new voters. For all the "substance" stuff, Clinton had and still has this aura of wanting to win above all else, and judging by the "inevitability" crap, seemingly even above the now-desperate needs of the voters. As this Second Gilded Age dies with the older generation, it just feels at odds with the coming new zeitgeist.

HH:

J.J.

You are just being silly. Either one of us could have assembled and stated a better case for an organized program of interference with "controversial" Federal scientific reports to appease the religious right.

But crack Time reporter Karen Tumulty lacked the resources and the intelligence to do this? I'm not talking about KT's lack of a strident tone. I am talking about the absence of accumulated evidence and tracing of the evidence to Bush White House political operatives.

The pattern of political interference with Federal scientific agencies was analagous to the pattern of interference with DOJ attorneys. It was obvious that the trail led back to the White House, and it would have been relatively easy to prove. Appointments of right-wing science commissars were made by just a few officials. KT either refused to follow the trail and name names, or she was blocked from doing so by her editors. Her stony silence on this matter speaks eloquently.

At this late date, with all the evidence pointing to White House mischief requiring merely tying a journalistic bow to gift wrap it as an expose, KT suggests a nice, polite discussion of science policy among presidential candidates, letting the case for Bush administration manipulation of Federal scientific research slide down the memory hole. Mission accomplished, Mr. Stengel.

J.J. Author Profile Page:

There are plenty of dots that could have been connected by the national press, no doubt. If the press had done a better job following up on Ron Suskind's reporting, and spent more time talking with people like Lawrence Wilkerson, Paul O'Neil, John Dilulio, Richard Clark, Robin Raphel, Bush might not have been reelected in 2004. I've actually berated Time in many cases for missing all this...

But in this case, I think you're making too much out of a competent piece of reporting. As for the DOJ attorneys, it's true, Jay Carney pooh-poohed talkingpointsmemo's claims about the matter, and that says something about Time's mindset back then. But I don't see what this has to do with Karen's reporting from early 2006. Most of the DOJ attorneys didn't even resign until early 2007.

HH:

J.J.

We can make this very simple.

Questions for Time Magazine straight-shooter KT:

1. Were you in a position to assemble evidence documenting an extensive pattern of deliberate interference with Federal scientific research ordered by the Bush White House?

2. Were you able to name individuals or offices in the Bush White House that appointed individuals who interfered with Federal scientifc research?

3. Did the editors of Time Magazine discourage or interfere with your efforts to investigate the Bush administration's meddling in Federal scientific research?

4. Why, after seven years of Bush administration meddling in science, did you not write an expose of this activity?

Sit back and listen to the chirping of the crickets, J.J.

HH:

Here's how and why Marshall and Talking Points Memo won a Polk Award today:

"His site, www.talkingpointsmemo.com, led the news media coverage of the politically motivated dismissals of United States attorneys across the country. Noting a similarity between firings in Arkansas and California, Marshall (with staff reporter-bloggers Paul Kiel and Justin Rood) connected the dots and found a pattern of federal prosecutors being forced from office for failing to do the Bush Administration's bidding."

Source: http://www.attytood.com/2008/02/a_landmark_day_for_bloggers_an_1.html

Are you paying attention, KT?

shooooq:

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