January 8, 2008 3:22

The Other Effect of a Hillary Loss in NH

Posted by Michael Scherer | Comments (31) | Permalink | Trackbacks (0) | Email This

I just got a call from a conservative marketing consultant I know. He is in a panic. "I am in the midst of a major crisis with a lot of people," he said. "Hillary Clinton is going to die today. Do you know what that means for conservative fundraising all over America?"

I do. Big trouble. For most of the year, Hillary has been the only rallying point for conservatives, besides anger over immigration policy, which still divides some portions of the Republican Party. The consultant continued: "Emails are flying fast and furious to try to find out if she is dead and if she needs to be pulled from the copy" of direct mail pieces, which are set to be mailed. Some are going to try to just add Barack Obama's name, he said. Some may have to rethink the whole pitch.

"There is a gigantic transition that will begin to take place," the consultant said. "The witch is dead, and life is going to change."

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Reader Comments (31)

Paul-no not that one:

Advocating for any Republican candidate or Republican position isn't even considered.
.
Don't fret, your friend will come up with something to scare his targets.
Gosh what will he do with an African American candidate named Obama?
Three guesses.

Posted by Paul-no not that one | January 8, 2008 3:35 PM

Cookie Puss

Cry me a damned river. I'm pretty sure the Republicans will find another bogeyman to spice up their direct mail letters, even if Hillary gets out. Fear is what they do best.

Posted by Cookie Puss | January 8, 2008 3:35 PM

smedley:

The only question is: will the media report the blatant race-baiting that is sure to come?

Posted by smedley | January 8, 2008 3:39 PM

J.J.

Don't worry. The Republican Noise Machine already has tons of oppo and will retool soon enough.

In a few months, Oceania will have always been at war with Eurasia...

Posted by J.J. | January 8, 2008 3:43 PM

monchie b. monchum

Another journalist obviously pretending ignorance of what the Republicans will undoubtedly do: make Obama the new BOOGIEPERSON.

You know, some of us read about the 2-minute hates in "1984," where people were subjected to intense propagandizing intended to turn Emmanuel Goldstein and his allies into BOOGIEPERSONS. And some of us recognize how the Republicans have their own 24/7 hates, aka talk radio, intense propagandizing targeting certain individuals with the goal of turning them into BOOGIEPERSONS. Hillary is the prime BOOGIEPERSON now; in 2004 the BOOGIEPERSON was John Kerry (and before him, Howard Dean); in 2000, the designated BOOGIEPERSON was Al Gore; and from 1992 thru January 2001, the biggest BOOGIEPERSON of them all was Bill Clinton.

And all the while, our media overlords pretend ignorance of the GOP Smear/Propaganda/Brainwashing Machine that provides the scripts for the 24/7 hates, and of how easy it is for them to switch primary targets. (And of course our media overlords will enable the smearing, as they always do.)

This has been the dynamic in our dying (if not already dead) democratic republic since at least the 1980s...and still our "journalists" pretend not to notice it.

Posted by monchie b. monchum | January 8, 2008 3:53 PM

monchie b. monchum

SHORT ANSWERS TO SIMPLE QUESTIONS:

The only question is: will the media report the blatant race-baiting that is sure to come?

Of course not.

Posted by monchie b. monchum | January 8, 2008 3:55 PM

Enceladus:

Isn't it suspicious that a marketing consultant, who probably gets paid to maintain the illusioin of confidence, would want you to publicize his sense of crisis?

Posted by Enceladus | January 8, 2008 4:01 PM

J.J.

Isn't it suspicious that a marketing consultant... would want you to publicize his sense of crisis?

Oh no, what are we going to do now? We don't have anything planned!! (And see that bridge over there? It's for sale!)

Posted by J.J. | January 8, 2008 4:05 PM

monchie b. monchum

My favorite part is how our media overlords pretend not to notice how easily and quickly the Republican Smear Machine switches between targeted BOOGIEPERSONS.

Posted by monchie b. monchum | January 8, 2008 4:10 PM

Michael Scherer:

You are right. If Obama wins, the race is on to make Obama the boogeyman. But it won't be easy. Republicans I speak to in Iowa and NH routinely tell me how much they despise Hillary Clinton, but they are often either favorably disposed or confused about Barack Obama. Against the odds, and despite his rather liberal record, Obama has succeeded in getting his message through to lots of Republicans and independents in these early states.

Of course, he still has to define himself to the rest of the country before his enemies do. That is the contest. And it will be ugly. Take a look over at the homepage of the conservative site NewsMax.com today.

Here are just three of the headlines:
"Barack Obama's Racist Church"
"Obama Family in Kenya Watches U.S. Vote"
"Hillary: Don't Elect Obama-Al Qaida is Watching"

Posted by Michael Scherer | January 8, 2008 4:15 PM

Paul-no not that one:

Thanks for weighing in Michael but the NewsMax posts rather make our point.
It will incredibly ugly if it's Obama. Actually no matter who wins.
As your friend demonstrates there is no case that they can make for their party so they have to go with fear mongering.
And why wouldn't they? It works for them.

Posted by Paul-no not that one | January 8, 2008 4:21 PM

J.J.

I agree that retooling the machine presents some difficulty. If it's clumsy and transparent enough (and/or some good people in the media can report the backstory) maybe people will catch on... but not holding my breath.

Swift Kids for Truth are already on the case...

Posted by J.J. | January 8, 2008 4:24 PM

monchie b. monchum

If Obama wins, the race is on to make Obama the boogeyman. But it won't be easy.

It'll be very easy...and the NewsMax smears are just the beginning.

The NewsMax smears, as well as other smears, will get picked up by Drudge and the talk radio hosts, and from there they will travel to Fox News, and finally to the so-called "liberal media," who will tell us they have to cover these stories because "they're already out there."

Oh, and all the while, our right-wing acquaintances and relatives will forward many of the most dishonest smears to us in emails.

I don't know why we libs have to explain this dynamic over and over and over again. It's been going on for a few decades now, with slight variations in the distribution technology.

And yet our media overlords pretend ignorance of it.

Posted by monchie b. monchum | January 8, 2008 4:26 PM

J.J.

The NY Times had a pretty good piece on Obama's church and his minister a few months ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/30/us/politics/30obama.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Posted by J.J. | January 8, 2008 4:29 PM

monchie b. monchum

"Journalists": "We're shocked, shocked to find that the Republicans could be as nasty to Obama as they've been to Hillary...and to Kerry...and to Howard Dean...and to Al Gore...and to Bill Clinton...But first, more straight talk from John McCain!"

Posted by monchie b. monchum | January 8, 2008 4:34 PM

mediasux:

monchie b. monchum :
Another journalist obviously pretending ignorance of what the Republicans will undoubtedly do: make Obama the new BOOGIEPERSON.

uh, I think that Scherer made it clear that he knows exactly what the GOP will do...to wit:

"Emails are flying fast and furious to try to find out if she is dead and if she needs to be pulled from the copy" of direct mail pieces, which are set to be mailed. Some are going to try to just add Barack Obama's name, he said. Some may have to rethink the whole pitch.

I really think that people have to pay a lot closer attention to Scherer's reporting, because there is a tremendous amount of subtext in what he writes -- stuff that as someone writing for Time, he can't say overtly.

The subtext here is obvious -- the GOP has no positive platform, and can't raise money with a positive campaign.

I mean, compare Scherer's post to the previous one based on the same premise -- conservative reaction to the prospect of the demise of Hillary. The conservative is telling Cox that conservative writers know that they are attacking Hillary primary for partisan reasons -- and that the REST of the press corps is treating her unfairly without even realizing it.

And Cox uses this revelation not for self-reflection, but as another excuse to take cheap shots at Clinton.

Scherer knows what he's doing. Cox has no clue --- even when she's told what she's doing by a peer, she still doesn't get it.

Posted by mediasux | January 8, 2008 4:52 PM

Tel:

So the Republicans are going to try to use race against him? Sounds like a great strategy for the Democrats. That kind of baiting might have worked twenty or thirty years ago, but it won't now. It won't turn out any more votes against the Democrats. Anybody moved by it would not be voting Dem anyway. The Repubs would clearly be shown as blatant racists, alienating the moderates and taking one step closer to the electoral abyss.

Posted by Tel | January 8, 2008 5:18 PM

mediasux:

tel, they aren't gonna start using the 'N' word. But they will use race against him.

Like the phrase, 'the party of Ted Kennedy, Al Sharpton, and Barack Obama." (and don't be surprised to see Sharpton all over the media, especially on Fox, as an "analyst" who supports Obama.)

ANd every single news story that has any "racial" component will start getting more -- and more prominnt -- coverage in the conservative media, which of course will bleed over to the rest of the media. Mumia Abu Jamal has another one of his endless appeals rejected --- conservatives will start writing about Mumia, and Obama will be asked about Mumia. An affirmative action case reaches the Supreme Court? It will be big news, and Obama will be forcd to take a position.

Trust me, there are ways that you can make sure that everyone knows that Obama is black, and that being black matters, and that "Obama is making decisions based on his race" without EVER saying a single word that is racist.

Posted by mediasux | January 8, 2008 5:29 PM

J.J.

Dog whistle politics. See Harold Ford. Harold Ford: he's not white, er, right.

Posted by J.J. | January 8, 2008 5:35 PM

Robert Beswick:

Also, what will Question Hillary do for a living?

Posted by Robert Beswick | January 8, 2008 7:09 PM

Paul Dirks

My wife recently received the famous "Obama is really a radical Muslim e-mail" from an aquaintance. What was amazing to me was that the e-mail opened with "This is true, you can check it out at snopes.com" with a link to the front page. In the meantime snopes had an entire article on the e-mail clearly stating that it was false.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/muslim.asp

Of course the only conclusion to be drawn is not only that the smears will come fast and furious but that the target audience won't follow links.

Posted by Paul Dirks | January 8, 2008 7:31 PM

stuart_zechman:

Michael Scherer: Thanks for responding to commentary, it's much appreciated.

Posted by stuart_zechman | January 8, 2008 7:36 PM

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