Thank You, Joe and Chris

"Black tax?" Seriously, WTF? And the Jesse Helms comparison? You talking about the race where Helms ran a blatantly race-baiting ad right before the election? How is that comparable to yesterday's results? Again, WTF? You've gone all Tweety.

Jay what about the possibility that the 15% rule in the Iowa caucuses played a bit against Obama.

Those voters who voted for Richardson and Kucinich in Iowa didn't have their support parlayed over to Barack in NH. Glossing over the figured it looks like roughly 16 thousand votes in NH.

Of course this is based on the assumption that all Richardson/Kucinich supporters followed the directive of their candidate and supported Barack as a second choice (in Iowa and presumably in NH). I realize this is not the strongest assumption.

But anyways, if NH had had the same rule as the Iowa caucuses (and I understand the difference between a caucus and a primary - I'm speaking on purely theoretical terms), then Barack would have taken the Richardson/Kucinich support and probably won the primary.

Who knows what may happen if Richardson/Kucinich both drop out of the race and endorse Barack? I think we can probably forecast increased support however marginal it may be. In a race as close as this, those few votes are going to go a long way.

Just some food for thought

Hahahahahahaha.

This is hilarious.

Whoa!! Man!! What about those 36 Biden voters. And those 17 Dodd voters. That's it.

That's the ticket.

And they were all women, too, weirdly enough. And voted as a bloc for Clinton. And didn't know until they walked into the polling place that their man was out.

You need to look at the CNN exit polls, Jay.

"black tax"?

LOL. Literally.

Why are we treading into the dangerous territory of implying that people who vote for anybody but Obama just won't vote for a black man? It's kind of unfair, don't you think? I'm glad Jay's debunking it but it's weird how the pundits immediately jumped to that explanation. If Obama doesn't win the nomination it's not because Democratic voters are racist. Let's just agree on that right now.

Being a member in good standing of the Beltway Raccoon Lodge means never, ever having to say you're sorry.

If there were any accountability at all for these courtiers, there would be a lot of applications being filed for substitute weather guys at local stations in Butte and Peoria.

Jay Carney apparently won't discuss the chattering class being wrong about everything again.

Great. What will the next mass mistake from the Village be about?
Until these people own up to the obvious reality that they primarily repeat things that they don't actually know, we're on course for another round of Saddam's WMD.

The clearest discriminatory factor in this election involves Evangelicals and the Mormon candidate. Had Romney been a traditional Christian, he would be a hands down favorite for the nomination.

Soem time ago, Chris Matthews appeared on the Jon Stewart show and Stewart essentially ridiculed Matthews' "journalism." He became defensive and clearly did not reflect on this response. Mr. Matthews and others would do well to heed Tom Brokaw's call for an ethical approach to reporting.

Lest we forget how Al Gore's candidacy was sabotaged by the media...and what has resulted....

As if to reinforce the point, an aide hands McCain a BlackBerry so he can read a report about a near-confrontation in the Straits of Hormuz between U.S. and Iranian ships. Without pausing, McCain, who once sang the words "Bomb Iran" to the tune "Barbara Ann," dictates a measured statement about "the nature of the Iranian regime."

Time's Carney interrupts. "Shouldn't we just bomb them?"

"First," McCain replies, "we ought to broadcast that Beach Boys song."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/07/AR2008010703139_2.html?sid=ST2008010800563

As someone who's clearly chomping at the bit to help start another War, can we really rely on your dispassionate objectivity when explaining why the candidate more likely to provide you with such a newsworthy event unexpectedly beat the candidate marginally LESS likely to provide you with that satisfaction?

Enquiring mind want to know. Because after all, the tone of press coverage exists in a vacuum and has no effect whatsoever on actual election results.

Paul- does your WaPo clip tell you whether or not Jay was using sarcasm to contrast McCain's previous comments on Iran with the more measured one given after reading the blackberry? Sorta hard to tell, and sorta hard to get worked up about this without first knowing the subtext.

Good post. Thanks.

DIEBOLD, DIEBOLD, DIEBOLD !!!

RECOUNT, RECOUNT, RECOUNT !!!

LIE, CHEAT, STEAL !!!

BALLOT BOX STUFFERS !!!

SUNDAY VOTERS !!!

So a social scientist friend of a colleague here...

not THAT is what I call solid sourcing. SHEESH.

Here's a clue, Carney. Look at the internals of the pre-election polls. Realize that that only about 3/4 of the New Hampshire Democratic primary electorate was committed to voting for the candidate that the poll "Headlines" said they would vote for. And that among those voters who were committed to their candidate, Hillary was just about tied with Obama -- and that Obama's numbers were MUCH softer than Hillary's.

In other words, had you folks in the media bothered to check the poll internals, you'd have known that the "Headline" numbers were all but meaningless. The polls themselves weren't the problem, it was the careless and incompetent reporting on the polls that were.

And its not like you didn't know you should have been checking the internals. People don't go from "firmly for Candidate X" to "firmly for Candidate Y" overnight just because Candidate Y wins in Iowa -- and you can't be dumb enough not to realize this.

As for the Biden/Dodd theory -- get serious. Whether they'd formally withdrawn from the race was irrelevant -- anyone who planned on voting for either of those two knew they were long shots before Iowa, and knew that they were DOA after Iowa. And their names remained on the ballot.

In fact, this whole theory is so bizarro-world that I suspect your "peer" misrepresented the "social scientist", because no SERIOUS social scientist would seriously advance such a theory without looking at the data first. In fact, since there is no data to support his theory (its not like anyone polled voters to find out if they knew that Biden and Dodd had withdrawn), I will guarantee you that this Social Scientist was spit-balling a theory -- looking for explanations for the results, coming up with a theory that could possibly explain the data.

And since you apparently don't know anything about how social scientists really operate, you publish this completely hypothetical "theory" as if it was some kind of scientifically based conclusion.

PLEASE LEARN HOW TO DO YOUR JOB.

@Anon...

Even if they were just yucking it up, it's still a creepy exchange. We are, after all, discussing sizable random civillian casualties.

Paul- does your WaPo clip tell you whether or not Jay was using sarcasm to contrast McCain's previous comments on Iran with the more measured one given after reading the blackberry? Sorta hard to tell, and sorta hard to get worked up about this without first knowing the subtext.

Sorry, but sarcasm is an expression of disapproval/contempt, and if you think that Carney is going to show contempt for McCain in front of not just the McCain worshipping press corps, but McCain himself, well, you don't know Carney

At best, you might be able to say that it was black humor -- but at Iran's expense, not McCain's. (i.e. Carney thinks that "bombing Iran" is "funny").

Posted by Anon | January 9, 2008 12:42 PM:

...does your WaPo clip tell you whether or not Jay was using sarcasm to contrast McCain's previous comments on Iran with the more measured one given after reading the blackberry?

This is a good question, and a measured response with an emphasis on what is and is not known factually is always the correct one.

For what it's worth, my admittedly dubious conjecture is that Jay was trying lamely for a gotcha moment, in which he could get something down on paper about Iran and bombing from McCain, probably by implicitly daring McCain to sing the song again (a la Tom Cruise's character vs Nicholsen's Col. Jessup in "A Few Good Men").

Whatever the case may actually be, the fact that this episode got us absolutely nothing in the way of real information about what McCain's actual foreign policy plan is with respect to handling Iran. And so speculation on sarcasm aside, Jay was totally incompetent in this instance at doing his job.

Sorry, that's "Jack Nicholson", typo.

I didn't think there was any "Black Tax" either. As a matter of fact, the errors bars in some projections overlap, and simply put, if Hillary got slightly more than was anticipated, and Obama slightly less, that was all it took.

I think much further analysis of the outcome isn't going to yield much more than that.

Question Hillary is right, however. We should ALWAYS be vigilant in this day and age against widespread Republican voter fraud.

Me thinks that you have neither the time or the expertise to understand how "Social Scientists" work and you most certainly do not have the expertise to understand the voters.

Voters don't vote for a Candidate A because village idiots think that Candidate A is sexy.

Please write about the things you understand

Paul Dirks:
Time's Carney interrupts. "Shouldn't we just bomb them [Iran]?"

I think/hope Jay was joking. Not really a funny joke (Jay bombed), but there you go.

Mediasux, unfortunately for our wonderful country, got it right in my book. The media is so lost, it doesnt know what spin doctor to cave into first, or what media blip to follow without thinking, or what media-whore to snuggle up to for ratings.

Where is a little careful professionalism? A little reporting of careful facts without "pudit du jour" telling what to think and what it means. I love the Obama Iowa message, and you are already replacing it with empty media crap. Shut up on your predicitions/ pundits/ polls, and report the candidate message and its debate!

Mediasux said:
"Look at the internals of the pre-election polls. Realize that that only about 3/4 of the New Hampshire Democratic primary electorate was committed to voting for the candidate that the poll "Headlines" said they would vote for. And that among those voters who were committed to their candidate, Hillary was just about tied with Obama -- and that Obama's numbers were MUCH softer than Hillary's.

In other words, had you folks in the media bothered to check the poll internals, you'd have known that the "Headline" numbers were all but meaningless. The polls themselves weren't the problem, it was the careless and incompetent reporting on the polls that were."

Mediasux, unfortunately for our wonderful country, got it right in my book. The media is so lost, it doesnt know what spin doctor to cave into first, or what media blip to follow without thinking, or what media-whore to snuggle up to for ratings.

Where is a little careful professionalism? A little reporting of careful facts without "pundit du jour" telling us what to think and what it means. I love the Obama Iowa message, and you are already replacing it with empty media crap. Shut up on your predicitions/ pundits/ polls! Just report the candidate message and its debate!

Mediasux said:
"Look at the internals of the pre-election polls. Realize that that only about 3/4 of the New Hampshire Democratic primary electorate was committed to voting for the candidate that the poll "Headlines" said they would vote for. And that among those voters who were committed to their candidate, Hillary was just about tied with Obama -- and that Obama's numbers were MUCH softer than Hillary's.

In other words, had you folks in the media bothered to check the poll internals, you'd have known that the "Headline" numbers were all but meaningless. The polls themselves weren't the problem, it was the careless and incompetent reporting on the polls that were."

CorkyB:

Well said, thank you.

Thanks for bringing this up.

In the end, NH loves to vote for the underdog. Or more likely, NH wished to assert its right to make a different choice than Iowa. There's resentment here that Iowa sapped more of the candidates' time than usual this cycle-- is NH trying to permanently marginalize Iowa's significance in this process?
It's about as reasonable as the "black tax" argument.

EVERYONE is missing this:

HALF THE BALLOTS IN NH WERE CAST BEFORE IOWA!!!!

Also- BALLOTS WERE SENT TO 50% OF CALIFORNIA VOTERS THIS PAST MONDAY AND MOST OF THOSE HAVE BEEN MAILED BACK ALREADY

Pleeeeze someone in journalism come into the 21st century.

Yes the final day and exit polls were 100% right on every candidate- they usually are now since there's an average of so many. But the ground moved after Iowa and Obama did get many more of the people voting on election day.

BTW, Jay, if you look at the last poll, the Suffolk University poll, you'll see Obama up by 7, with no support (that would be zero) for Dodd or Biden.

The rasmussen robopolls showed similar margins for Obama. No Brady effect there.

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Nanjing East Inflatables Manufacturing Co.,Ltd. was established in 2002, located in Nanjin, Jiangsu, China. We main manufacture and sell multifarious Inflatable products, such as Inflatable Bouncers, Inflatable Tent, Inflatable Slides, Inflatable Toys, Inflatable Castle, Inflatable Games, Inflatable Arch and so on.