Romney Knows New Hampshire

mediasux:

As I said on a different thread, don't count Romney out just yet. Michigan is up next, and he's got strong ties to that state -- and while the most recent polls are three weeks old, at that time Romney had a substantial lead over McCain (and Rudy), and a smaller lead over Huckabee.

Huckabee's potential, however, is limited. The media still doesn't treat him seriously, and while his support isn't going anywhere, his potential is still limited to the evangelical base (which based on Thompson + Huckabee numbers, will max out at no more than 35%).

The wild cards are the former McCain supporters (he was over 30% at the start of the year, mid-december at around 10%) and the unusually large (over 20%) of voters who were still undecided. I suspect that a lot of those undecided were former McCain supporters who abandoned him because of his immigration stance and/or because the media had declared his candidacy dead...the question is whether they'll go back to McCain or not.

On the Democratic side, Hillary is "exceeding expectations" as they say -- and even if she comes in second, it will be a lot closer than expected. It also appears that Hillary's gain is more of a "stop Obama" trend -- Edwards was zooming up in the polls in NH, but the numbers we see so far don't reflect that -- in other words, a sizable percentage of Edwards voters switched because they don't want Obama!

As for the future...if Hillary is smart, she'll ignore SC (black voters are flocking to Obama, now that it looks like he has a genuine shot, and they make up too much of the SC electorate for Hillary to do well without a big chunk of them) and concentrate on Nevada.

Edwards, on the other hand, should go to Florida -- sure there are no delegates there, and it will piss off the powers that be, but he should go there to show that IF HIS MESSAGE IS GIVEN A CHANCE TO BE HEARD, he can win this nomination. The media will continue to ignore Edwards (especially if he doesn't get over 20% tonight) and he has to do something to break through the Hilbama media obsession.

Posted by mediasux | January 8, 2008 9:26 PM

Paul Dirks

:

Um...now that NH has been called for Clinton, shall we continue the discussion of her implosion?

Posted by Paul Dirks | January 8, 2008 10:54 PM

whskyjack:

Paul didn't you here. According to Chris Matthews (and I'm sure Ana will agree)she won the sympathy vote of women (aka the weaker sex)there for it doesn't count.

I do have a couple of crows for any one that feels hungry.

Jack

Posted by whskyjack | January 8, 2008 11:01 PM

another david:

Oh, Mr Scherer, you seemed to have dropped a childish tit-for-tat turd. Was there supposed to be a blog post here?

Posted by another david | January 9, 2008 12:15 PM

saleh:

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