November 5, 2007 3:10
Leaders of the Pack
Karen and I both attended a lunch in DC today held by mega-firm DLA Piper that featured two of its name hires -- former House majority leaders Dick Armey and Dick Gephart -- on a panel moderated by Charlie Cook to discuss election 2008. Armey and Gephardt are unique (you might say admirable) in the era of millionaire legislators: neither had much money when they ran for Congress or, -- 18 years and 28 years later, respectively -- when they left. It's safe to say they're both making up for lost time.
The lunch was the ultimate inside-the-beltway political event, headlined by inside-the-beltway experts. But before you dismiss what was said entirely, remember that Armey and Gephardt aren't mere armchair pundits; each knows a few things about the electorate and the two parties.
In a nutshell, Gephardt thinks Hillary is likely to pull out a win in Iowa, and that if she does, the Democratic contest is over. He thinks Romney will win Iowa and, having done that, will be propelled to the GOP nomination, through momentum and an infusion of his personal fortune. In the general, he thinks Hillary wins. Finally, Gephardt thinks the D's will pick up between 5-10 seats in the House and 4-7 in the Senate.
You might predict that Armey, who replaced Gephardt as majority leader after the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress, would disagree. Not really. Of Hillary, Armey said: "I don't think she's going to make a mistake. She's the best politician in the race..probably the best politician in America. In my view, she'll win the nomination and will probably win the presidency." Armey predicted that Clinton will have more appeal to religious voters than most people expect. Never particularly tolerant of religious conservative leaders while in office, Armey was extremely dismissive of Dr. James Dobson and others who think "people will follow their lead". So overrated is Dobson's "power," said Armey, that "you'll probably hurt yourself electorally if you do something to please Dr. Dobson."
Later, Armey warned that opponents of Hillary should understand two things: "One, she's smarter than they are. And two, she's meaner than they are." At least in his initial remarks (I had to leave before the event ended), Armey didn't even bother to make a case for why Giuliani, Romney, Thompson or McCain would win the GOP nomination. The one upbeat thing Armey said about the Republicans is that he didn't think the Democrats would increase their majority in the House next year -- a positive sign for the future for the GOP.
Cook was expansive. As you would expect from the creator of the Cook Political Report, he said more and cited more polls and more history, but he, too, concluded that Clinton would win the Democratic nod and that she would then have a 65-70% chance of winning the White House. On th Republican side, he said the race was 50/50 between Giuliani and Romney, effectively dismissing the Thompson and McCain efforts as futile. Cook began by declaring the Republicans have suffered so much bad news in the past few years that the Democrats have a distinct advantage -- "a tilted playing field" -- going into the 2008 election: self-declared party affiliation now favors Democrats between 4 and 12 percent, he said.
Cook put Hillary's chances of winning the nomination at 80%. "If she wins Iowa, it's over. If she loses Iowa, there's still a 60% chance" she wins the nomination, he said. "Has anybody seen a more focused, more disciplined candidate?" Cook asked. "Wow, she's like a machine....sort of Prussian efficiency. It reminds me of the Nixon campaign. Is it cold, joyless? Yes. Does it lack spontaneity? Yes. My guess is that this campaign will come up with a plan to deal with spontaneity." Ta dum.
In a twist on what a lot of people out there believe about the mainstream media, Cook accused the media of being desperate for a competitive race for the Democratic nomination, which in turn is what led many journalists and pundits to overinterpret Hillary's bad week last week and to declare that suddently the race was more competitive. "Just wishing for a race and wanting a race doesn't make it a real race," Cook said dismissively. Hillary, in Cook's view, is no less prohibitive now than she was a week ago.
Anyone care to disagree?
About Swampland
Ana Marie Cox is the founding editor of Wonkette and the author of the novel Dog Days. Read more
Joe Klein is TIME's political columnist and author of six books, most recently Politics Lost. Read more
Karen Tumulty is TIME's National Political Correspondent and has also covered the White House and Congress. Read more
Jay Carney is TIME's Washington bureau chief. He has covered the Clinton and Bush 43 White Houses as well as Congress. Read more
Jay Newton-Small has covered the Bush 43 White House and Congress since the DeLay era. Read more
Michael Scherer is a TIME Washington bureau correspondent covering the 2008 presidential campaign. Read more
Mike Murphy is a GOP consultant and was a senior strategist for John McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. Read more
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Reader Comments (20)
This sounds about right. Personally, I prefer Edwards. But I was impressed by HRC's energy plan that she rolled out today.
As for HRC's "meanness," this was Carl Jung's impression of Franklin Roosevelt:
I have just come from America, where I saw Roosevelt. Make no mistake, he is a force—a man of superior and impenetrable mind, but perfectly ruthless, a highly versatile mind which you cannot foresee.
Again, I'd prefer Edwards, but maybe we do need someone tough like this. We'll have to see...
I still get creeped out by the "Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton" thing.
Posted by J.J.
|
November 5, 2007 3:28 PM
"Anyone care to disagree?"
Nope.
OK, that said, what exactly does this mean in terms of our, i.e., not the luncheon attendees' daily lives?
Or was that topic somehow not covered at this prestigious affair?
Or should I be asking you of what importance of are these predictions to the people who might show up at an event hosted by the largest law firm in the world?
What is the point of endlessly handicapping the presidential race, if you're not going to spend identical effort calculating the race's results in terms of people's or the nation's problems or hopes?
I guess I really need to be clear, since you and your colleagues keep doing this to us your readers in some apparent attempt to seem entertaining or relevant. In the language of somebody who isn't a partisan groupie or a Beltway Media Star:
So? Let's say Hillary wins the Presidency. OK.
Who cares? Why does that matter to people?
Posted by stuart_zechman | November 5, 2007 3:35 PM
By the way, HRC's political skills do not let the press off the hook for the horrible treatment they've given Edwards. They half created the inevitability meme themselves.
Posted by J.J.
|
November 5, 2007 3:39 PM
I think we should just cancel the elections and crown Clinton Queen for life.
Posted by Derek | November 5, 2007 3:39 PM
All this, of course, is horrible news for democrats.
But, seriously:
Why would anybody--except a bunch of childish correspondents like Candy Crowley who expect politicians to be their organ-grinder monkeys--WANT a political race to be close?
I want the people I support to crush those I don't--crush, that is, in a legitimate and nonviolent electoral landslide.
If journalists need a close race so that they can feel entertained, that's pathetic.
And if they need a close race so that they can sustain the anxiety of the viewing public and thereby keep more eyeballs and viewers and advertising money, that's cynical and manipulative.
But this year's non-stop horse-race coverage has sure changed my own viewing habits. I've completely tuned out the TV news for the first long, sustained period in five years.
Posted by Enceladus | November 5, 2007 3:43 PM
Why does that matter to people?
Yup. HRC just rolled out her energy plan today. As usual, why do all we ever get is horserace?
Posted by J.J.
|
November 5, 2007 3:44 PM
What did you guys eat? Salmon? I bet it was salmon.
Posted by Mike M. | November 5, 2007 3:46 PM
Jay, how much will things change at CNN now that Parsons is gone? Can we expect to see a left-of-center columnist at Time anytime soon? Will Glenn Beck get fired.
Posted by TomT | November 5, 2007 3:47 PM
For what's worth I agree "stuart_zechman".
TIME pundits and highly paid writers should stop trying to impress those who choose to live outside the "village" and write about why various political events matter to the average citizen.
Please don't waste my time writing about about haircuts or the fact that HRC has breasts. I do want to know what the issues are and were the candidates stand on these issues. Save the other stuff for conversations with your fellow "villagers" at your weekly cocktail parties.
Posted by WFD | November 5, 2007 3:51 PM
In a nutshell, Gephardt thinks Hillary is likely to pull out a win in Iowa, and that if she does, the Democratic contest is over. ... Cook put Hillary's chances of winning the nomination at 80%. "If she wins Iowa, it's over.
Can there be any more crucial evidence indicting the mainstream media (including Carney and his Time colleagues) for the "crime" of destroying American democracy?
Seriously Jay, doesn't the very idea that the Iowa caucuses being the determining factor in the Democratic primary make you wonder about the way you do your job?
Because every other Democrat in the country would actually like to have a say in who gets the Democratic nomination -- and the only reason that Hillary could become an inevitability is because of the kind of "coverage" that you provide, and the ridiculous level of importance that you ascribe to Iowa.
The results of the Iowa caucuses belong on Page 5 of the New York Times, and a brief mention in the "political round-up" page of Time Magazine. Instead, you will treat it like its as close to Armageddon as we can get without nuclear weapons...
Posted by p_lukasiak
|
November 5, 2007 4:10 PM
Cook accused the media of being desperate for a competitive race for the Democratic nomination..
Of course they are. The media realized that helping to create an 'inevitable' candidate makes for stale news cycles until the general election begins.
-and/or-
Of course they are. The media is finally picking up on a strong undercurrent of public dissatisfaction with their 'inevitable' candidate, and are questioning why it's there.
-and/or-
Of course they are. The media enjoys building up their heroes and then knocking them down.
Posted by grape_crush | November 5, 2007 4:27 PM
In a twist on what a lot of people out there believe about the mainstream media, Cook accused the media of being desperate for a competitive race for the Democratic nomination, which in turn is what led many journalists and pundits to overinterpret Hillary's bad week last week and to declare that suddently the race was more competitive. "Just wishing for a race and wanting a race doesn't make it a real race," Cook said dismissively. Hillary, in Cook's view, is no less prohibitive now than she was a week ago.
What???? This is almost EXACTLY our take on the media. That they are so desperate for a horserace they'll do ANYTHING to make it competitve. Yet at the same time they want to show everyone that they have some special advanced knowledge of how the race will play out so they will crown Hillary as soon as possible.
Contradictory? Sure. And who wants to give me odds the media will never notice the contradiction?
Posted by JoyousMN2 | November 5, 2007 4:31 PM
The poll numbers released today show that Clinton's momentum has stopped and Obama has closed the gap. Obama and Edwards need to keep up their new tactics because there is evidence it is working and progressives still have a reason to hope.
Posted by Derek | November 5, 2007 4:40 PM
Jay Carney:
Was HelenKrieble there?
http://lonewacko.com/blog/archives/005650.html
lonewacko.com/blog/archives/003748.html
lonewacko.com/blog/archives/005650.html
I don't know how much you make, but it would seem that Time could save a lot of money by getting "insider" press releases directly from Armey's PR people.
Posted by NoMoreBlatherDotCom
|
November 5, 2007 4:52 PM
This is just about perfect.
I'd add one more:
Of course they are. Much of the media seems incapable of discussing issues in any detail, whereas a four-year-old understands a horse race.
Posted by Aaron | November 5, 2007 5:35 PM
First, I appreciate the invitation to disagree.
These discussions leave me cold. Why would I even want to spend any time thinking about whether I agree or disagree with these people? That's a sincere question. I am filled with dread to think that, after Iowa, the nomination will be a virtual lock. I am not naive about how the world works, but it doesn't mean I need it thrown in my face. One could just as easily tell us all that "in 80 years we'll all be worm food, so why bother going to your job?" I'd rather make the most out of the process rather than discuss the ending.
So I guess they're welcome to their opinion, but I would say I find it depressing if not offensive. Many reasonable people like myself are already disgusted with government as it is today, so it's not helping for the press to give any time at all to people who are only interested in smothering the process to satisfy their own ego.
The last debate did a relatively good job of elevating Obama and Edwards, which has in turn stimulated a lot of intelligent discussion about many pertinent topics. And here these guys are: "HRC's a lock! You own me $100! Har har. Let's go play some golf!" Ugh.
Wasn't everyone wrong about the nominee before Iowa in '04? Do these predictions serve any useful purpose?
Posted by Thinkerton | November 5, 2007 7:45 PM
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Posted by QUESTION HILLARY tm
|
November 6, 2007 3:03 AM
Anyone care for her 675 billion worth of social programs she wants to enact her first term I am not hearing much on that one?
Posted by Judgement | November 6, 2007 9:25 AM
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Posted by libya | September 22, 2008 12:16 PM
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Posted by Sesli Chat | October 3, 2008 4:53 PM