October 27, 2007 7:51
Huckabee Feels the Heat, but That's a GOOD Thing...
If you are looking for signs that a dark horse is moving up in the presidential field, there is a more telling indicator to watch than poll numbers. It's when the opposition decides he is becoming enough of a threat to take a shot at him. That's why there was special signficance, an arrival of sorts, to Mitt Romney's seemingly offhand observation Friday in an Iowa Public Television interview that Mike Huckabee had supported "special tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants." It marked the first time that the GOP frontrunner in Iowa had ever singled out Huckabee for an attack.
"I must be doing well," Huckabee said Saturday morning, when I told him what Romney had said. The former Arkansas Governor had not known about the swipe. Huckabee had spent Friday night, as he put it, "rocking the stage" with his band Capitol Offense before an estimated 650 people at the fabled Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa, which was the last place Buddy Holly had played before he died in a plane crash in 1959. On Saturday, Huckabee was to try his hand at pheasant hunting, a popular Iowa sport, which he considered an apt metaphor. "You never put the crosshairs on a dead carcass," Huckabee said. "Somebody sees me as a real wall mount, and that's a good thing."
Romney's comment referred to legislation that Huckabee had supported when he was Governor of Arkansas, which never went anywhere. But that's not the last that Republicans in Iowa, a state where immigration is a front-burner issue, are likely to hear of it. Huckabee is suddenly looking like he could make a very strong showing in the nation's first presidential contest on January 3. The buzz started building with his surprising second-place finish in August's Ames straw poll. Then, the ordained Southern Baptist minister wowed them at this month's Values Voter Summit. It is beginning to look like he may be the one for the GOP's yet-unsettled evangelical voters, who tend to wield an outsized influence in the Iowa caucuses.
His successes have been all the more remarkable for having been accomplished on a shoestring budget, suggesting that genuine voter affection, as opposed to advertising dollars, is driving the Huckabee surge. He noted that Friday also marked the first time he had passed the well-financed Romney in a national poll, albeit by a single, well-within-the-margin-of-error point. "I guess I'd be coming after me too," Huckabee said. "I'd also be crying, if I'd spent all that money."
Romney is not the only one who is suddenly feeling the need to educate conservatives on aspects of Huckabee's record that they might not feel so comfortable about. The Wall Street Journal's John Fund wrote this column focusing on Huckabee's fiscal record in Arkansas, which included raising taxes. Fund quoted Betsy Hagan, Arkansas head of the conservative Eagle Forum and a disaffected former Huckabee supporter, making just about the most toxic comparison anyone could make in a Republican primary:
"He was pro-life and pro-gun, but otherwise a liberal," she says. "Just like Bill Clinton he will charm you, but don't be surprised if he takes a completely different turn in office."
Huckabee talks about the Clintons, too, but in a different context. He claims he is the GOP candidate who knows and understands best how to beat Hillary Clinton, and notes that every election he won in Arkansas was "against the headwind of the Clinton political machine."
So how much of a threat has Huckabee become? The key thing to remember about Iowa is that the winner isn't always the candidate who finishes first; it's the one who gets the best headlines. (Indeed, one of the secrets of the whole exercise is that no actual delegates get selected in the caucuses; that happens later at party conventions.) Though Ed Muskie finished well ahead of George McGovern in 1972, for instance, it was McGovern who got the burst of momentum coming out of Iowa that put him on the road to the nomination and the Iowa caucuses on the political map.
Beating expectations can be the real victory, and they are rising fast for Huckabee. One big question is whether he can build an organization that can bring his growing evangelical fan club out on a cold winter night to caucus. There, however, he has gotten something of a break from Kansas Senator Sam Brownback's departure from the race. Brownback had also been a favorite of evangelicals, and he had been working hard to build a campaign operation in Iowa. Word is that much of his organization is heading Huckabee's way.
Still, Huckabee acknowledged it is likely to get much rougher from here. "I always enjoy letting the other guy draw the first blood," he told me. "Once blood is drawn, all is fair in love and war."
About Swampland
Ana Marie Cox is the founding editor of Wonkette and the author of the novel Dog Days. Read more
Joe Klein is TIME's political columnist and author of six books, most recently Politics Lost. Read more
Karen Tumulty is TIME's National Political Correspondent and has also covered the White House and Congress. Read more
Jay Carney is TIME's Washington bureau chief. He has covered the Clinton and Bush 43 White Houses as well as Congress. Read more
Jay Newton-Small has covered the Bush 43 White House and Congress since the DeLay era. Read more
Michael Scherer is a TIME Washington bureau correspondent covering the 2008 presidential campaign. Read more
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Reader Comments (30)
Beating expectations can be the real victory, and they are rising fast for Huckabee.
Beltway coctail circuit insider (BCCI) explains how after BCCIs decide what the "expectations" are for each candidate, BCCIs award the most positive press to the candidate who surprised the BCCIs the most.
....and the BCCIs never talk about how extraordinarily corrupt this whole system is...
Posted by p_lukasiak
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October 27, 2007 10:59 AM
He was a mediocre gubner, no great shakes.
His experience is all domestic, not a single thing that distinguishes him or qualifies him to lead the nation in this dangerous world.
A bigger problem for the GOP base will be his penchant for commuting sentences, which has gone largely un-noted.
He did a good job getting elected in a heavily Democrat Party state -- but had no real coattails to speak of.
On a scale of 1 to 10, he's a solid 5.
Next!
Posted by QUESTION HILLARY tm
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October 27, 2007 11:21 AM
I'll give Huckabee credit for being an effective public speaker and an authentic social conservative (as opposed to someone who just plays one on TV to fool the rubes), and I'll even give him credit for some of his populist economic positions.
But do we really want someone as president who compares abortion to the Holocaust, and also blames it for our immigration issues?
It might be fun to have a beer with this guy, but shouldn't restoring, um, sanity to the oval office be the greater priority?
Posted by J.J.
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October 27, 2007 11:33 AM
Karen can you ask Huckabee if he plans to reach out to those of us on the Left who will never vote for Clinton, or does he plan to put us in a Gulag?
Thanks
Posted by Derek | October 27, 2007 12:18 PM
I hope this war of words doesn't get too bloody, because I would personally like to see Mitt as President and Huck as VP.
Posted by Jed | October 27, 2007 12:30 PM
One of the things he ran on to get elected was eliminating the sales tax on food in Arkansas.
Never happened on his watch.
It was lowered by half last year, by Huckabee's successor (a party line Dem that ran a blatantly RACIST campaign to get elected -- check the Little Rock area TV ad archives, if you doubt the level to which the DNC will stoop to get their sycophants elected).
Huckabee is a God enough guy, just lacks relevant foreign policy experience from a state of only 2 million people (and most of them related at that).
Posted by QUESTION HILLARY tm
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October 27, 2007 12:30 PM
It really is bizarre, isn't it? it really is as if they get together on, say, Thursdays, and decide who is going to be the serious candidate this week. It doesn't change every week--it was Grandpa Fred for the longest time--but when it changes, it's watching a school of fish or a flock of snow geese.
Meanwhile candidate Dodd, a sitting senator with name recognition at least on a par with a former governor of Arkansas (quick, name the governors of Arkansas, Idaho, Oklahoma, and, oh, Nevada) gets zero coverage for calling out his colleagues on illegal behavior by the president, and an institutional plan to cover up lawbreaking by all but one of the major telecoms
Not a word in the Times, yesterday or today, about that. Although there was a piece about a Dodd commercial set in a barbershop, where the price of a haircut was the punchline.
Karen you once said you'd explain to us how this happens. Now would be a good time. What makes Huckabee more newsworthy than Dodd, today. I mean, you haven't even run the standard story about Obama and Clinton's centrist goals being threatened by the dirty effing hippies who believe in the constitution and the rule of law.
Posted by jayackroyd
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October 27, 2007 12:57 PM
On Friday morning I heard an item on the BBC world news which talked about the election in terms of the Christian Conservatives. Although it isn't as clear in the article below as it was on the radio, the message and the reason many of them are intent on voting is the Supreme Court. Nothing else matters to a large proportion of them. I think that is one of the reasons Huckabee is being pushed and promoted now. (I suspect his rise was pointed out in some of those famous RNC messages.)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7065480.stm
If Democratic voters don't remember this, we may find ourselves with another Republican president and our Constitutional rights lost for decades as they appoint another two or three Justices.
Posted by ivb | October 27, 2007 1:06 PM
I think the fact that Clinton Hacks like Begala and others are brought on as objective commenters may have something to do with the coronation of Clinton. They stand their with their mouths closed when gambling addicts like Bennett attack the Left and gush when the topic turns to Clinton. In turn, the media hate the Left and go out of their way to promote people like Clinton. I don't think there is any mystery why Edwards or Obama don't have a chance.
Posted by Derek | October 27, 2007 1:09 PM
It was a kind of strange to see David Brooks talk up Hillary Clinton a couple weeks ago. It seems like HRC might be the right's "damage control" candidate. If you can't elect a Republican, at least elect a Democrat you can keep "whipped." Whipped, because the Republican Noise Machine has already spent years branding her as Evil Incarnate, so not a lot of new work to do there. With Edwards or Obama they'd have to dream up a whole new demonology, and people might catch on to how formulaic and hackneyed their tactics are.
Also "whipped" because compared to Edwards, HRC's much more likely to bend to the will of special interests. Edwards has taken bolder stances and is more likely to be more independent of these interests (as Brooks hinted at in his column...)
Posted by J.J.
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October 27, 2007 2:06 PM
I think the demonology is already well started for Edwards and Obama, but it will cost more money and energy to rev them up to Hillary level.
Edwards - haircut, hedgefund, big house (compared with the hovels Rudy lives in), Girlyman.
Obama - Osama, Hussain, if he isn't actually a Muslim then he goes to an afrocentric church that is just waiting to take over the world.
I hope Hillary isn't the nominee, but I would vote for ANY Democrat as opposed to a Republican. I like Edwards, but Dodd has become my preference.
Posted by ivb | October 27, 2007 2:17 PM
yay! Made it in. I guess time-blog.com is on our ISP's SpamHaus list. :(
jayackroyd: School of MSM fish...LOL! So, it seems that Sen. Dodd needs to coordinate a strong debate showing with a 2% poll uptick and voila! Serious!
JJ: Don't forget Gov Huckabee's support of ID in schools.
Karen: ...and look what Iowa and McGovern did for the Dems in 1972...couldn't beat a sitting Pres stuck in a war-quagmire! (Sound familiar?) No thanks, Iowa. Time to rotate the primaries so that we don't keep making the same mistakes.
A hope for the Dems?: Gov. Huckabee surges in the primaries but not enough to keep Mayor Guliani from getting the nomination. Christian Conservatives are pissed and nominate 3rd party candidate. 1992 all over again. Can this happen?
Posted by kbanginmotown | October 27, 2007 2:27 PM
Say what you want about Huckabee's misguided beliefs. I think one thing he's got going for him is that he comes off as sincere and honest. If you listen to him, you truly believe he might actually care about people and he's not simply a power-hungry opportunist like Romney or Giuliani.
I don't like the idea of a baptist minister in the white house but I don't think he's a sleazebag that's willing to trample over laws or be secretive like Bush has been.
Simply put, he seems clean. Which as someone leaning towards the democrats is easier to take than Hillary Clinton in a lot of ways.
I would never vote for him but I would take him over the other republicans in a heartbeat.
Posted by Dave | October 27, 2007 2:29 PM
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=www.mikehuckabee.com
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=www.mikehuckabee.com
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=www.mikehuckabee.com
'nuff said.
Posted by DFCSTech | October 27, 2007 2:31 PM
Oops!! Comparison was not showing. Can't get it to work.
Just paste in the other 4 guys' sites and click compare. You will see that Huckabee's site is now blowing away all of the competition, in all 3 categories (Reach, Rank, and Page Views).
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=www.mikehuckabee.com
Posted by DFCSTech | October 27, 2007 2:44 PM
"What makes Huckabee more newsworthy than Dodd, today."
That's easy. The issue that Dodd is talking about is extraordinarily meaningful. That's why none of them wants to touch it.
Huckabee is all about the game. And that's all Karen et al wants to talk about. It's too hard to blog about anything meaningful, takes brain power and all that.
Besides, Carney has been Humpin' for Huckabee for two-three weeks now, so Karen's just following the crowd. And it's working! Go along, get along!
Posted by James, Los Angeles | October 27, 2007 3:13 PM
James, via atrios, here's Howie's explanation:
It's really amazing. We have a Senator accusing, substantively and persuasively, of the president violating his oath of office, and of setting aside the most fundamental principle of the land--that we are a nation of laws. And Howie thinks we've run out of stories....
and so are talking up Huckabee to fill up column space.
Unbelievable.
Posted by jayackroyd
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October 27, 2007 4:18 PM
Karen or Ana,
That oversized roman font is a really bad choice for block quotes, just by the way.
But, really, having html support is a tremendous improvement
Posted by jayackroyd
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October 27, 2007 4:21 PM
It's really amazing. We have a Senator accusing, substantively and persuasively, of the president violating his oath of office, and of setting aside the most fundamental principle of the land--that we are a nation of laws. And Howie thinks we've run out of stories....
Jay, that's because the cement had already been poured in the "Hillary is inevitable" story when Dodd finally got a spine implant. The Demoratic narrative is being set in concrete at this moment... Obama the fading star who just didn't have what it takes, Edwards the hypocritical has been who couldn't close the sale with the voters...and those other guys that don't merit mentioning their names.
The GOP race, however, remains fluid....but the cast is boring as he77, so they have to keep reintroducing new elements into it. Huckabee will probably be the last "brave new candidate", although don't be surprised if speculation about a brokered convention -- and a risen-from-the-grave Newt Gingrich shows up for an appearance at some point.
Posted by p_lukasiak
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October 27, 2007 5:05 PM
Huckabee is all about the game. And that's all Karen et al wants to talk about.
to give Karen her due, she's following the GOP candidates right now. That's her assignment.
Anyway, if she was talking about Dodd, she wouldn't be talking about the important stuff.
The Times is talking about the fact that the new Dodd ad ends with a throwaway question about the cost of a haircut.
Meanwhile the Post Fact Checker, in desperation to find something a democratic lie in the ocean of Republican lies, singles out Dodd use of actors in that ad instead of "real people -- as if it wasn't obvious that the whole thing was staged and scripted, and it would matter if it was professionals or amateurs trying to deliver the lines.
Karen tried to talk about the important Dodd stuff....she did a post highlighting the way that Dodd's leadership on FISA is energizing the netroots, and rasing money for his campaign. What we are seeing with the concentration on the "Barber" ad is Beltway "pushback" -- Dodd isn't part of their narrative, and any attempt to become part of the narrative will result in negative coverage for him.
Posted by p_lukasiak
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October 27, 2007 5:42 PM
Yep, you nailed it. Cannot talk about anything that reflects poorly on the Dear Leader. That would be in poor taste, and make Broder Village ....uncomfortable. Can't have that.
So they post interminably on the excruciating minutiae and trivialities that make up DC social life.
Posted by James, Los Angeles | October 27, 2007 5:48 PM
Why doesn't anyone attack Mike's FairTax Plan? It's only the most fiscally prosperous, capitalist-based plan for taxes going? Actual freedom paying taxes with retail sales over mafia/communist extortion tactics like the income, corporate, death, and property tax should fry the liberal mind!
But to attack the FairTax would be to attack 20 million bucks of research, Alan Greenspan, T. Boone Pickens, and nobel economist Vernon L. Smith. Who wants to step in the ring with them?
Posted by FairMark | October 27, 2007 6:29 PM
"Every conceivable story has been written, from cleavage to laughter to multiple marriages, and it's only October."
If you wanted to imagine a statement that revealed what a vacuous buffoon Howie is you couldn't come up with anything better than this. He should have qualified the word conceivable with something like "every non-substantive conceivable story has been written."
Posted by Derek | October 27, 2007 6:41 PM
As a Democrat, I used to fear that Huckabee would be the most difficult Republican candidate to beat. At a superficial level he looks and sounds reasonable (a rare quality amongst the current crop of Republicans). Learning of governor Huckabee's successful effort to get a serial killer named Wayne DuMond released from prison, and the subsequent rape and murder caused by that foolish lapse in judgement has caused me to change my opinion. If Huckabee were nominated, he would merely serve to remind the public of the crazy way crackpots like he behaved during the Clinton years. He would go a long way towards inoculating Hillary (if she's the nominee) from some of the crazier charges the right wing continues to invent and push.
If you liked the Willie Horton ads of the 1980s, you'll love what's in store for you if Huckabee is the nominee. You will learn all about what happens when a Republican governor believes the wingnut conspiracy theories about the Clintons and then acts on one of them.
If you're not familiar with the DuMond story I suggest that you read the tristero article at Hullabaloo and this article from the Arkansas Times. It's a fascinating story (and more than a little bit creepy).
Posted by bobcn | October 27, 2007 7:18 PM
First, Tumulty can't even fact-check supposed direct quotes or get the quotes right. The tuition concerned discounts to illegal aliens; by giving those discounts, Huck would have deprived U.S. citizens of college discounts and caused some of them not to be able to go to college.
Second, Tumulty says we're going to hear more about this issue. What that means is that Rudy and others are going to make statements, and then she's going to write them down, never once trying to fact-check them or follow up.
Meanwhile, citizen journalists who want to do the job Tumulty refuses to do should go to a Huck appearance and record his answer to this question:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5Dp7FaKIJo
Posted by NoMoreBlatherDotCom
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October 27, 2007 8:12 PM
Karen--
Can you please, at some point, comment on this question. As usual, p_l describes one example of a view widely held in the blogosphere, one that Clinton's adviser Peter Daou understands and has explained very well, in the context of the Triangle within the new media environment.
The importance of setting this narrative arc is huge; the complete absence of coverage of Dodd's initiative is outright bizarre. Since, as p_l points out, the dems aren't your beat right now, it would be really helpful if you could put up a post that explicates or debunks this theory of media narrative.
The dominance of the narrative "Hillary's lead unshaken by a fading Obama. Edwards never had a chance because he's a phony." is, as p_l says, already apparent. How can people call themselves journalists when they have already set the narrative arc? Why are media "critics" like Howie Kurtz incapable of discussing the role narrative plays in determining coverage?
Does the increasingly derisive, and pretty clearly accurate, characterization of this commitment to narrative really not affect your idea on how to report on the presidential race?
Posted by jayackroyd
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October 28, 2007 12:46 AM
the complete absence of coverage of Dodd's initiative is outright bizarre.
Dodd was on MTP this morning and Russert attacked him for using the FISA issue to raise money. Talk about not fitting the narrative, can't continue to raise money when it started by people contributing unasked because of a stand you took. Dodd seemed surprised by Russert's accusation and neglected to say clearly that the contributions were coming in before they put up a button on their web page. Don't remember Russert making a complaint about Rudy's 9/11 funders.
Mathews, of course, was intent on discussing Hillary's marriage.
Posted by ivb | October 28, 2007 11:33 AM
">http://atrios.blogspot.com/2007_10_28_archive.html#2497609344161706417> atrios
AP:
Just a few months ago, the one-time front-runner for the GOP nomination had hit rock bottom, with financial, political and organizational problems so severe that many in the world of politics had written him off.
ABC:
Initially considered the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination, McCain is now behind in national polls, and trails in the early primary states as well.
I suppose it all depends on how we define "initially," "considered," "clear," and "front-runner" but the idea that McCain was ever the clear front-runner anywhere but in the NBC green room and the Georgetown cocktail weenie circuit is a bit of a stretch.
This is another illustration of Village groupthink. McCain is STILL getting coverage even though any objective measure has him completely dead. While Ron Paul continues to climb by those same measures, and is ignored.
And we all talk about this, have our nicknames for the Village and their inhabitants, while Karen et al pretend these narratives don't exist.
And Howie thinks they've run out of cute stories.
Posted by jayackroyd
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October 28, 2007 2:22 PM
yeek. forgot to format. atrios ends with "stretch" above
Posted by jayackroyd
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October 28, 2007 2:23 PM
"Just because we haven't found them, doesn't mean they didn't exist. Remember, we haven't found Jimmy Hoffa either."
Wow this guy is a bigger kook than I thought. Karen maybe you should ask him if he will resume the search for WMD in Iraq if elected? He might find Jimmy Hoffa over there too.
Thanks
Posted by Derek | October 29, 2007 8:10 AM